22 States Already In Recession Or On Brink Warns Moody's Chief Economist | Mark Zandi

Summary

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, warns that the US economy is fragile: 22 states are in or near recession, hiring has stalled, and recession risks are high even though his baseline is no recession. He sees high equity valuations and AI-related speculation as bubble risks, while gold, silver, and crypto also look juiced. He expects housing to improve gradually as affordability and demographics unlock the market.

• Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi says 22 US states are in or near recession, accounting for about a third of GDP.
• He attributes state-level weakness to tariffs, immigration policy, and goods-producing sector struggles, while Texas and Florida grow on population inflows.
• The labor market is the economy's weak spot: hiring has stalled, though layoffs remain low and act as the recession firewall.
• Zandi sees high equity valuations and AI-related speculation as the likely bubble epicenter, with correction risk rising.
• He also says gold, silver, and crypto look juiced, and warns complacency could make an actual bubble more likely.
• Housing demand is weak but should improve gradually as mortgage rates and affordability improve and demographics force moves.
• His baseline remains no recession, with expected Fed rate cuts and eventual stimulus, but he flags shutdown and Fed-independence risks.