Markets Weekly June 13, 2026
Speakers
Joseph Wang
— Author, Central Banking 101 / ex-Senior Trader, Federal Reserve
Summary
Joseph Wang discusses inflation peaking as energy prices decline on Iran peace hopes, while warning of an impending oil spike if the SPR runs out. He also highlights the bearish impact of the SpaceX IPO and a broader equity supply surge from insider sales and big tech buyback exhaustion.
- CPI headline is elevated due to energy prices, but core inflation is near the Fed's target, suggesting peak inflation.
- Oil prices have fallen on progress toward an Iran deal, but the SPR is nearly depleted, risking a sharp oil spike.
- SpaceX IPO was the largest ever, valuing it at $2 trillion despite ongoing losses, with massive insider selling expected.
- Broader equity supply is increasing as companies issue shares and reduce buybacks, creating a headwind for US stocks.
- If an Iran peace deal materializes, the Fed could turn neutral and eventually cut rates, boosting bonds.
- The first Fed meeting under Chair Kevin may see a dovish surprise if Iran developments hold.
Ideas
Watch only under standing SPCX rule. Original text is monitored but not promoted as long, short, or avoid.
Equity supply headwind pressures US stocks
The broader US equity market faces a headwind from a shift to net equity issuance. Big Tech companies are reducing buybacks and issuing shares to finance AI buildouts, removing a decades-long pillar of support. Combined with upcoming IPOs (Anthropic, OpenAI), the increased supply will likely pressure stock prices.
Oil prices could spike on SPR depletion
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is being drawn down aggressively and is close to minimal operational levels. Oil CEOs warn that if the Iran situation is not resolved soon, the SPR can no longer buffer supply, causing oil prices to spike sharply.
Potential rate cuts on Iran peace deal
If a genuine Iran peace deal emerges, oil prices will fall further, bringing down headline CPI. In that scenario, the Fed could shift to a neutral stance and the market will begin pricing in rate cuts, leading to a significant rally in US rates markets (lower yields).
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This Joseph Wang video, published June 13, 2026, features Joseph Wang discussing SPCX, SPY, WTI, TLT. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Joseph Wang · Tickers: SPCX, SPY, WTI, TLT