iCapital's Dan Suzuki says forget the dot plot, 'look at what oil is doing'

Summary

Dan Suzuki of iCapital raised his 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 4.5%-5.3%, arguing elevated oil prices from the war will drive Fed policy and rates. He recommends overweight energy as a concentrated oil bet, a financials/health care barbell, private infrastructure and hedge funds as diversifiers, and cash. He also expects stocks to chop with higher volatility if yields hit 5.3%, with stress already visible in Nasdaq, small caps, and high-yield spreads.

• iCapital raises 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 4.5%-5.3%.
• Dan Suzuki says oil is the key driver for rates, not the dot plot.
• He favors overweight energy but calls it a concentrated oil bet.
• He prefers a public-market barbell of financials and health care.
• He suggests private infrastructure and hedge funds as diversifiers.
• He sees cash as an attractive risk-adjusted asset now.
• If yields hit 5.3%, he expects stock chop and higher volatility.
• Stress signs include Nasdaq and small caps 6% off highs and widening high-yield spreads.