Name: Jim Cramer talks which sectors thrived, and which performed the worst during past hiking cycles
Uploaded: 2026-09-17T23:42:15+00:00
Duration: 138 s

Speakers

Jim Cramer — Host, Mad Money

Summary

Jim Cramer reviews sector performance during the December 2015 to December 2018 Fed tightening cycle and its sub-periods. He notes safety sectors led immediately after the first hike, while cyclicals and energy outperformed between the first and second hikes as inflation worries were absent. Over the full cycle, information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials were relatively better, while communication services, staples, energy, and materials lagged. He also flags the current Middle East war and triple-digit oil as a risk that could affect Fed tightening.

Cramer analyzes sector performance across the 2015-2018 tightening cycle.
Immediately after the first hike, utilities, staples, real estate, and telecom led as safety sectors.
From first to second hike, energy and materials were best; financials and industrials also outperformed.
Health care, real estate, and staples were among the worst in the first-to-second hike period.
In the full cycle, information technology, consumer discretionary, and financials were relatively better.
Communication services, staples, energy, and materials moved from leaders to laggards over the full cycle.
Cramer says the current cycle may be analogous, but the Middle East war and triple-digit oil are key variables.
He concludes rate hikes could persist if history is a guide.

Ideas

Jim Cramer Host, Mad Money 0:09

Safety sectors outperform early in tightening.

In the first three months after the first rate hike in the prior tightening cycle, safety sectors did best: utilities, consumer staples, and real estate. The communication services sector was technically best in show, but that was misleading because the grouping was only created in late 2018; what was actually being measured was the predecessor telecommunications sector, which was also considered a safety group. This historical pattern suggests defensive sectors may outperform early in a tightening cycle.

Jim Cramer Host, Mad Money 0:29

First-to-second hike favors cyclicals over defensives.

From the first hike to the second hike, mid-December 2015 to mid-December 2016, energy was the best-performing sector and materials did well, while financials and industrials were among the best. Traditional safety groups like health care, real estate, and staples were the worst performers. This happened because there was not much inflation and no one was worried about the broader economy, so cyclical sectors led and defensives lagged.

Jim Cramer Host, Mad Money 0:29

First-to-second hike favors cyclicals over defensives.

In the full December 2015 to December 2018 tightening cycle, information technology was the dominant sector; more cyclical groups like consumer discretionary and financials were relatively better, while many traditional safety groups were near the bottom. Communication services, aka telecom, staples, energy, and materials went from some of the best to some of the worst, which is what you would expect when the Fed gets serious about raising rates. Cramer thinks this cycle could be analogous here.

Jim Cramer Host, Mad Money 0:29

First-to-second hike favors cyclicals over defensives.

Jim Cramer Host, Mad Money 1:10

Full tightening cycle favors tech and cyclicals.

Jim Cramer Host, Mad Money 1:34

Oil war premium shapes Fed tightening.

Cramer says this tightening cycle is different because the Middle East war has pushed oil prices to triple digits. If the war is resolved and oil goes back to $80, the Fed is not going to continue tightening. That makes oil a key macro variable to watch for Fed policy and inflation.

Jim Cramer talks which sectors thrived, and which performed the worst during past hiking cycles

Summary

Ideas

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