Inflation Cooled In June. Sort Of 7/21/26

Summary

June CPI inflation eased to 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2%, but stays well above the Fed's 2% target. Lower gasoline prices drove the cooling, while food costs, especially beef and produce, continued to climb due to tight cattle supplies. Oil price trends are uncertain, and Bank of America's CEO warns inflation might not subside until 2028.

• Headline CPI rose 3.5% YoY in June, down from 4.2% previously.
• Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and pre-pandemic 1.7% average.
• Gasoline prices declined and helped cool the June CPI reading.
• Beef and produce (lettuce, tomatoes) are the biggest food pain points; tight cattle supplies push beef higher.
• Coffee fell 2% month-over-month but is still up nearly 13% year-over-year.
• CNBC's Steve Liesman questioned whether the oil price decline is a sustainable trend.
• Bank of America's CEO said its research team expects inflation may not return to target until 2028.