Historic Japanese Election Victory; Mideast Tensions Ease | Horizons Middle East & Africa 2/09/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | February 09, 2026 at 07:06 | 46:01 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Peter Kinsella — Head of Investment Services, Union Bank Privé

Peter van Driel — CFO of ADNOC Gas

Paul Dobson — Executive Editor, Bloomberg

Sumaya Aljazeeri — Research Assistant Vice President, SICO Bank

Jennifer — Anchor, Bloomberg

Sheri Ahn — Asia Trade Co-Anchor, Bloomberg

Stuart Livingstone-Wallace — Bloomberg Executive Editor for Middle East, North Africa, and Russia

Mohammed Al-Jadaan — Minister of Finance, Saudi Arabia

Summary

Japanese markets rallied after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's LDP won a historic post-war supermajority, lifting Japanese equities while the yen stayed relatively stable. Oil declined as Middle East tensions eased and Iran described nuclear talks with Washington as a step forward. Guests discussed yen and JGB outlook, gold and silver after a sharp correction, ADNOC Gas earnings and LNG demand, and prospects for Saudi IPOs and reforms. Bitcoin was also flagged as a technical watch.

Japan's LDP won a historic supermajority, boosting Japanese equities and keeping the yen steady.
Iran and the U.S. agreed to continue indirect nuclear talks, easing oil supply concerns.
Peter Kinsella expects USD/JPY to fall over the coming year and remains bullish on gold and silver after the correction.
Peter van Driel highlighted ADNOC Gas resilience and long-term LNG demand despite near-term oversupply.
Sumaya Aljazeeri said Saudi reforms should benefit banks, telecom, healthcare and large-cap equities.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan discussed Vision 2030 reprioritization and budget funding.
Bitcoin bounced from oversold levels, with $74,000 and $68,000 flagged as key technical levels.

Ideas

Jennifer Anchor, Bloomberg 3:21

Bitcoin levels to watch

Bitcoin has bounced from extreme oversold levels but remains below the Ichimoku cloud, which mandates risk management. She flags $74,000 and $68,000 as the key levels to watch closely for the largest cryptocurrency.

Peter Kinsella Head of Investment Services, Union Bank Privé 9:15

Yen weakness is near an end

Japan's election outcome is likely to bring increasing fiscal stimulus while underlying inflation is already firm, so the Bank of Japan can continue raising rates gradually. He sees continued compression in USD/JPY rate spreads and expects USD/JPY to trade lower over the coming year, reflecting front-end steepening and a broader dollar-weakening move, with the long yen-weakening phase since 2013 near its end.

Peter Kinsella Head of Investment Services, Union Bank Privé 10:01

Long-end JGB yields likely stabilize

Long-end JGB yields, particularly 20s, 30s and 40s, have risen enough that after hedging costs Japanese life insurers get better overall returns than from hedged U.S. Treasuries. That should reduce Japanese fund outflows and keep more domestic capital in Japan, balancing supply-demand and making significant further yield moves unlikely, with only marginal increases from current levels.

Peter Kinsella Head of Investment Services, Union Bank Privé 11:23

Gold to reach $6,000

He remains extremely constructive on gold and expects it around $6,000 per ounce by year-end. The recent correction was overdue and short-lived, speculative froth and leverage have been reduced, and the key supports remain intact: ongoing political tensions, enormous central bank demand, robust retail demand, a shifted global demand curve and inelastic supply.

Peter Kinsella Head of Investment Services, Union Bank Privé 12:58

Silver speculative froth has cleared

The sharp selloff in silver was especially driven by speculative activity and leverage, which has now been largely taken out of the trade. He says the correction is largely done and leaves very constructive underlying fundamentals, so he is not bearish on silver after the washout.

Peter van Driel CFO of ADNOC Gas 15:05

ADNOC Gas resilient despite volatile oil

ADNOC Gas delivered $5.2 billion of net income in 2025, up 3% despite oil prices being 14% lower, showing resilience. In 2026, oil may remain volatile, but UAE domestic gas demand from power, heavy industry and data centers remains strong; international demand is also strong, especially in Asia, and the new LNG project is due late 2028 with more than 80% of volumes already contracted, supporting long-term growth.

Peter van Driel CFO of ADNOC Gas 19:17

Long-term LNG demand remains healthy

He expects gas demand to remain strong for coming decades, with Asia contributing at least 40% of demand growth and new markets such as the Philippines and Thailand emerging. The long-term LNG supply-demand outlook is very healthy, even though there may be near-term oversupply, and ADNOC Gas is positioning for the longer term.

Paul Dobson Executive Editor, Bloomberg 27:03

Takaichi trade boosts Japanese equities

The market is taking Takaichi's landslide election win positively because the large mandate is seen as an endorsement of the 'Takaichi trade' of more growth and stock-market reform, which should boost Japanese assets and companies. The yen is relatively stable and the bond market is absorbing issuance without a major selloff, reinforcing a constructive backdrop for Japanese equities.

Sumaya Aljazeeri Research Assistant Vice President, SICO Bank 38:51

Saudi reforms lift equities and sectors

Recent Saudi market reforms are a catalyst that should enhance the IPO ecosystem by increasing participation and demand, leading to better pricing and aftermarket trading. With capital following liquidity and liquidity following reform, beneficiaries include Saudi liquidity leaders such as banks, Vision 2030 enablers such as telecom and healthcare, and large-cap index heavyweights that could be included in global indices or benefit from upgrades.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 09, 2026, features Jennifer, Peter Kinsella, Peter van Driel, Paul Dobson, Sumaya Aljazeeri discussing BTC, USD/JPY, Long-end JGBs, GLD, SILVER, ADNOCGAS.AD, LNG, EWJ, Saudi banking sector, Saudi telecom sector, Saudi healthcare sector, KSA. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jennifer, Peter Kinsella, Peter van Driel, Paul Dobson, Sumaya Aljazeeri · Tickers: BTC, USD/JPY, Long-end JGBs, GLD, SILVER, ADNOCGAS.AD, LNG, EWJ, Saudi banking sector, Saudi telecom sector, Saudi healthcare sector, KSA