Long-end JGBs Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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07:02
Jan 26
Jan 26
Long-end JGB yields pressured higher.
The long end of the JGB curve is undergoing a structural and regime change because of Japan's inflation inflection, the BOJ policy shift, more foreign ownership, and likely fiscal largesse; it is not well anchored and could see more volatility, putting upward pressure on long-end yields.
MED
07:17
Jan 23
Jan 23
Short long-end JGBs on fiscal debt risks.
There is high risk of renewed long-end JGB selling because liquidity is thin, the long end has become unanchored, and Japan is heavily indebted while planning more fiscal expansion despite sluggish growth and demographics. The long-term trend is JGB weakness, especially around the 40-year auction.
HIGH
06:27
Jan 23
Jan 23
Avoid long-end JGB duration.
Investors should avoid duration in JGBs and keep positions at 10-year tenors or below because the BOJ is likely to stick to its taper plan and will not rescue the long end, while further reductions in super-long supply have limited room.
HIGH
16:51
Jan 20
Jan 20
MOF cuts long-end JGB issuance
The Ministry of Finance has previously responded to JGB volatility by changing auction sizes and reducing issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and longer maturities while increasing 10-year and shorter supply. He expects more of this, which would ease long-end supply pressure and support long-end JGBs.
MED
07:07
Jan 20
Jan 20
Long-end JGB term premium repricing higher
Fiscal policy, sovereign debt, and higher term premium are becoming bigger drivers of JGB yields. Long-end term premium is likely to reprice higher, though she would prefer to express the broader Japan view through the currency, with the short end more supported.
MED
About Long-end JGBs Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks Long-end JGBs across 1 sources: 0 bullish vs 2 bearish calls from 5 authors. Historical directional balance: -40% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 5 total trade ideas tracked. Latest voices: Omar Slim, Mark, Frances Cheung.