Laopu Gold, CATL Added to Hang Seng Index | The China Show 2/16/2026
Speakers
Summary
- China's "Anti-Involution" Crackdown: Beijing is intensifying pressure on platform companies to stop price wars (termed "involution"). This has led to massive earnings warnings (Meituan citing a $3.5B loss) and regulatory summons for Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com.
- AI "Scare Trade" Opportunity: The market is selling off software stocks on fears of AI disruption ("SaaS Apocalypse"). StashAway’s CIO argues this is a short-term overreaction, but the real visibility remains in hardware and memory chips (Korea), not software.
- Space Race Reality Check: Despite China's filing for 203,000 satellites, they are estimated to be 5 years behind SpaceX. SpaceX’s valuation is justified by its monopoly on reliable reusable rockets (Falcon 9).
- Japan's Stagflation Risk: Japan's GDP grew only 0.2% (annualized), missing the 1.6% estimate significantly. This complicates the BOJ's normalization path, punishing Japanese banks, though the Yen is finding structural support.
Trade Ideas
Leung notes that while the "SaaS apocalypse" (AI replacing software) is shaking markets, the "hardware bottleneck" is the only area with clear earnings visibility. She specifically cites Korea as a beneficiary of the cyclical recovery and AI demand. The "AI Scare" trade is punishing software, but the demand for compute is skyrocketing. Korea (specifically memory chips) sits at the intersection of AI demand and a global cyclical recovery, offering better risk/reward than crowded US software trades. LONG. Focus on the "picks and shovels" of AI where supply is constrained. A global recession dampening cyclical demand for electronics.
Regulators summoned major platforms (Alibaba, Baidu, JD, Meituan) on Friday regarding "evolutionary" pricing practices (price wars). Meituan warned of a $3.5B annual loss due to this competition. The government's "anti-involution" drive effectively caps profit margins. If companies cannot compete on price to gain market share, and are simultaneously facing an earnings wall due to weak consumption, their growth models are broken. SHORT/AVOID. The regulatory overhang combined with deteriorating earnings guidance makes the sector uninvestable in the near term. A surprise stimulus package from Beijing or a successful Trump-Xi summit in April could trigger a short squeeze.
China has applied to launch 203,000 satellites, but currently has no reusable rocket technology comparable to the Falcon 9. SpaceX has 10,000+ satellites and launches 2,000+ per year. China is resorting to "regulatory tricks" (filing for slots) because they cannot compete on hardware. SpaceX has an insurmountable 5-year lead in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) infrastructure. LONG (via private shares or TSLA as proxy). The valuation is justified by a near-monopoly on the future of the internet (LEO). Rapid technological breakthroughs by Chinese aerospace state-owned enterprises.
Warner Bros Discovery is reportedly reopening sale talks with Paramount; Skydance has also submitted amended terms to topple a potential Netflix deal. A bidding war is emerging for Paramount's assets. The inclusion of a $2.8B breakup fee coverage by Skydance indicates serious intent to block consolidation by competitors. WATCH. M&A arbitrage opportunity developing as multiple suitors engage. Regulatory antitrust blocking any deal.
Japan's GDP missed expectations massively (0.2% vs 1.6%), yet the Yen has rallied from 159 to 153 against the Dollar. The weak economy makes it harder for the BOJ to hike rates aggressively (bad for banks), but structural factors (fiscal discipline, inflation entrenchment) are preventing the Yen from collapsing. The currency is stabilizing despite the weak data. NEUTRAL. The "easy short" on the Yen is over, but the "long" trade is complicated by a stalling economy. The Fed cutting rates faster than expected would send the Yen ripping higher regardless of Japanese data.
Stephanie Leung
CIO, StashAway
Leung states, "Gold is a replacement for the US dollar... we don't need to further beta by adding silver." Gold is being treated as a core sovereign asset and hedge against US fiscal/political instability. Unlike Silver, which is retail-driven and speculative, Gold has institutional and central bank support. LONG. Stick to Gold for the macro hedge; avoid Silver's volatility. A sudden strengthening of the USD or a rise in real rates.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 16, 2026, features Stephanie Leung, Catherine Lim, David Fickling, Annabel Droulers, Mark Cranfield discussing MU, EWY, BOTZ, BABA, BIDU, JD, SPACEX, TSLA, PARA, WBD, JPY, FXY, GLD. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Stephanie Leung, Catherine Lim, David Fickling, Annabel Droulers, Mark Cranfield · Tickers: MU, EWY, BOTZ, BABA, BIDU, JD, SPACEX, TSLA, PARA, WBD, JPY, FXY, GLD