Fuel Crisis Or Economic Boom? Fund Manager’s Shocking Forecast | Josh Young

Summary

Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, argues that the Strait of Hormuz closure will drive oil prices much higher, potentially to $150-$250, and that US oilfield services and small-cap producers are well-positioned. He explains that higher oil benefits the US economy as a net exporter and sees a cyclical boom in domestic drilling. The interview also covers geopolitical dynamics, OPEC+ cohesion, and the AI-driven demand for oil.

• Josh Young expects oil prices to surge dramatically due to the Strait of Hormuz closure depleting inventories.
• He is bullish on US onshore drilling and oilfield services, citing a cyclical boom and cheap valuations.
• Small-cap US oil producers are preferred over large caps due to lower valuations and no shut-in exposure.
• The US economy benefits from higher oil as a net exporter, with potential for rising real wages.
• China is seen as a net beneficiary of the strait closure, reducing incentives for reopening.
• OPEC+ remains strong despite UAE's exit, which was motivated by non-OPEC factors.
• AI and data center buildout will create significant incremental oil demand from backup diesel generators.
• The risk of non-linear price rationing could lead to extreme oil price spikes if storage reaches tank bottoms.