What Bessent Is Really Doing in the Bond Market | Mike Green

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 09, 2026 at 20:00  |  57:59  |  Wealthion
Speakers
Michael Green — Portfolio Manager, Simplify Asset Management

Summary

Mike Green argues the long-end Treasury selloff is driven by passive bond index mechanics and a missing marginal buyer rather than U.S. default or inflation fears. He sees Treasury buybacks as rational debt management, highlights opportunities in long-duration TIPS and low-coupon Treasuries, and reiterates systemic risks from passive equity flows and declining institutional trust. Gold is framed as a trust hedge that should eventually benefit from Fed rate cuts.

  • Bessent's expanded Treasury buybacks are characterized as debt management, not yield curve control.
  • Passive bond funds now heavily influence marginal long-duration Treasury demand.
  • Low-coupon long-dated Treasuries are seen as ignored despite positive convexity.
  • 30-year TIPS are highlighted for offering a 3% real yield with principal safety.
  • High Fed rates may be sustaining inflation through housing and durable-goods shortages.
  • Passive equity flows are described as a continuing systemic risk for U.S. large caps.
  • Gold benefits from declining trust but appears expensive on some historical metrics.
Ideas
Michael Green Portfolio Manager, Simplify Asset Management 4:09
Long-dated low-coupon Treasuries offer convexity, buybacks.
Passive bond index funds buy by market capitalization, so deeply underwater long-dated low-coupon Treasuries are underweighted and ignored despite positive convexity and potential to double in price. Treasury buybacks are likely to target these discounted bonds, creating a specific opportunity.
Long-dated low-coupon U.S. Treasuries HIGH
Michael Green Portfolio Manager, Simplify Asset Management 4:29
Treasury buybacks support U.S. bond prices.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded debt buybacks are rational debt management, not yield curve control. By issuing current-coupon debt to retire deeply discounted low-coupon bonds, Treasury can shrink the national debt, support U.S. Treasury prices, and attract marginal buyers.
TLT HIGH
Michael Green Portfolio Manager, Simplify Asset Management 39:46
Passive-driven U.S. equities face crisis risk.
Passive index flows are now the marginal buyer in equities; when those flows reverse, he expects a severe crisis. Mike still believes U.S. large-cap equities ultimately end badly and embeds the passive-flow factor into long/short products.
SPY MED
Michael Green Portfolio Manager, Simplify Asset Management 50:41
Gold benefits from trust decline, Fed cuts.
Gold is the negative-trust asset that benefits from declining trust in institutions and central banks. Although it is expensive on some historical metrics and Middle East selling may suppress it, Mike expects gold to ultimately break out as the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates.
GLD MED
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This Wealthion video, published September 09, 2026, features Michael Green discussing Long-dated low-coupon U.S. Treasuries, TLT, SPY, GLD. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Michael Green  · Tickers: Long-dated low-coupon U.S. Treasuries, TLT, SPY, GLD