Will 2026 Be an Up or Down Year for Bitcoin and Crypto?
Speakers
Alex Thorn
— Head of Firmwide Research, Galaxy Digital
Ryan Graham
— Research Manager at Messari
Laura Shin
— Host, Unchained
Summary
Alex Thorn and Ryan Graham discuss the 2026 crypto outlook, agreeing the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead and macro signals are mixed. They debate Bitcoin's long-term drivers, Ethereum value accrual, Solana's competitive position, DATs, perp DEXs, prediction markets, privacy coins, stablecoin competition, and agentic commerce. Key takeaways include medium-term Bitcoin bullishness, caution on ETH and Polygon, preference for Solana ecosystem and Hyperliquid, and positive views on privacy coins and select stablecoin/distribution names.
- Four-year cycle declared dead; 2026 macro too chaotic for easy Bitcoin price prediction.
- Both speakers see long-term Bitcoin drivers intact or accelerating, though near-term signals are mixed.
- Ethereum criticized for weak value accrual and rollup-centric roadmap; Solana seen as better positioned in tokenization and stablecoins.
- DAT discussion favors Strategy and BitMine, with long-tail DATs seen as unlikely to matter.
- Hyperliquid defended as dominant perp DEX; distribution seen as the main competitive threat.
- Prediction markets face legal uncertainty over sports betting; Polymarket and Kalshi are not directly tradable.
- Privacy is framed as a growing theme, with Zcash and Monero highlighted as hedges.
- Stablecoin competition intensifies; Circle faces new entrants while Tether's positioning is favored by Ryan, and PayPal distribution is noted.
Ideas
Bitcoin medium-term bullish despite chaotic 2026.
The four-year cycle is empirically broken and 2026 is too chaotic to predict, with options pricing an equal chance of BTC at $50K or $250K by year-end. He is still very bullish medium-to-longer term because of dovish Fed policy, fiscal spending, midterm incentives, geopolitical uncertainty, dollar debasement, institutional adoption, market-structure maturation, and regulatory easing; he can imagine new cycle lows and all-time highs within 2026.
Bitcoin should stop underperforming other assets.
The four-year cycle is dead and 2026 is hard to predict, but Bitcoin should stop underperforming commodities and equities as it did in Q4 2025. Long-term holder selling is slowing or flipping, and the long-term drivers for Bitcoin, including dollar debasement, loss of trust in institutions, and monetary easing, remain intact or are accelerating over a 5-10 year horizon.
Strategy is durable among DATs.
Among digital asset treasury companies, only Strategy and BitMine really matter. He is not bullish on the long tail of DATs, but Strategy cannot be written off because it has cash to weather a bear market and he is not concerned about a 2026 blow-up or course change.
BitMine may replicate Saylor's ETH playbook.
BitMine is a very interesting DAT opportunity because it still finds cash to buy ETH, has begun staking ETH, and may replicate the Strategy playbook by using staked ETH as collateral to borrow and lever while staking yield covers borrowing costs.
ETH lacks direct value accrual.
Ethereum the platform improved in 2025, but ETH the asset still has question marks. Direct value accrual to stakers is weak, network revenue has fallen sharply for years, and ETH is now a monetary asset whose premium depends on Bitcoin; there is no scenario where Bitcoin loses monetary value while ETH gains.
Ethereum roadmap may not accrue value.
Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap and upgrades like Fusaka make rollups cheaper without accruing value to ETH. Base pays more to Optimism for licensing than in blob fees to Ethereum, and Ethereum is building for a high-throughput, low-fee future that may never arrive. Solana is meaningful differentiated competition for general-purpose blockspace, stablecoins, RWA, and tokenization, and institutions are not flocking to Ethereum as expected.
Solana best placed for tokenization.
Solana is a meaningfully differentiated blockchain that has gained ground against Ethereum, especially in institutional adoption, stablecoin issuance, and tokenization. Its speed, separate fee markets, and relative decentralization versus single-sequencer L2s like Base make it well placed for tokenized securities and stablecoin activity.
Solana ecosystem strong, token value uncertain.
He is much more bullish on the Solana ecosystem than on the SOL asset. Solana has the biggest consumer user base and is the best place to build consumer crypto applications, but he questions whether stablecoin and tokenization inflows will be value-creative for the token. Solana also needs to become competitive in perp DEXs.
Polygon killer apps lack token value.
Polygon arguably had the most killer apps this cycle, including Polymarket and Courtyard, but its token performed poorly because those apps are USDC-based and do not generate speculative activity or use Polygon's base asset as money. Killer apps alone do not create value for the L1 token.
Hyperliquid remains hard to dethrone.
Perp DEXs are cash cows, and Hyperliquid makes more money than any L1. It will be tough to dethrone without a competitor having built-in distribution, and technical differences alone are no longer enough. Hyperliquid remains number one in volume and open interest, though uptime during market meltdowns is essential.
Equity perps could come to CME.
The CFTC is poised to allow equity perpetuals, and real equity perps may come through CME, SIBO, or existing U.S. derivatives exchanges. This is a traditional-finance competitive development for crypto perp DEXs and a regulatory/product catalyst to watch for CME-type venues.
Privacy coins offer Bitcoin-privacy hedge.
Privacy is likely a supertrend because regulatory risk for supporting privacy projects has been de-risked. Zcash revived in fall 2025 and Monero outperformed Bitcoin through 2025. Zcash and Monero are interesting hedges against Bitcoin failing to adopt meaningful privacy, and practical privacy adoption should grow gradually.
Circle well positioned as stablecoin issuer.
The GENIUS Act is a clear catalyst for stablecoin growth, and stablecoins are better than ACH, Fedwire, and SWIFT for many use cases. Existing issuers like Tether and Circle are well positioned, and Circle captures interest income while regulatory clarity expands stablecoin use across cards, banks, fintechs, and exchanges.
PayPal distribution can drive stablecoin adoption.
PayPal has already worked with PYUSD and incentivized its DeFi use, and its large PayPal/Venmo distribution could make its stablecoin widely used because large platforms can convert deposits into stablecoins at little cost.
Circle faces GENIUS stablecoin competition.
He is more confident in Tether's positioning than Circle's because Tether owns the user in non-Western markets, while new GENIUS-compliant stablecoins from banks and fintechs are likely to target USDC rather than USDT. Circle faces the real disruption.
Up Next
This Unchained (Chopping Block) video, published January 09, 2026, features Alex Thorn, Ryan Graham discussing BTC, MSTR, BITMINE, ETH, SOL, POL, HYPE, CME, ZEC, XMR, CRCL, PYPL. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Alex Thorn, Ryan Graham · Tickers: BTC, MSTR, BITMINE, ETH, SOL, POL, HYPE, CME, ZEC, XMR, CRCL, PYPL