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SK Hynix Awaits US Debut, Trump Set to Travel to NATO Meeting | The Opening Trade 7/6/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 06, 2026 at 11:18  |  1:36:22  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Conviction Trivedi — Chief FX and Emerging Market Strategist, Goldman Sachs
Tim Graff — Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, State Street
Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer

Summary

The video previews a big week for tech with SK Hynix's $29B US listing and Samsung earnings, framing the debate on whether the memory cycle is peaking. It also covers FX views including a bearish yen forecast to 165 from Goldman Sachs, a bullish won call, and a broader carry trade strategy, along with M&A deals such as Easyjet's takeover acceptance and ITV's sale to Sky. The NATO summit and its defence-spending implications round out the macro discussion.

  • SK Hynix ADR listing seen as opportunistic, raising memory-cycle peak concerns
  • Samsung earnings awaited with high profit expectations and DRAM price hikes
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts dollar/yen at 165 in 12 months on rate differentials
  • Korean won viewed as undervalued with near-term support from listing flows
  • State Street strategist sees US dollar grinding higher and rotation into software
  • Carry trade recommended with short low-yielders funded into high-yield EM currencies
  • Easyjet accepts £5.2B bid but shares trade below offer on execution risk
  • NATO summit and Trump visit put defence spending and European defence stocks in focus
Ideas
Tim Graff Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, State Street 19:02
Dollar grinds higher on solid US economy
The US dollar should grind higher short- to medium-term because real-money investors remain underweight, the US labour market is solid, consumption is decent, and inflation is falling, making the rate differential supportive.
USD MED
Conviction Trivedi Chief FX and Emerging Market Strategist, Goldman Sachs 29:17
Won undervalued, flows to support it
The South Korean won is one of the most undervalued currencies and should strengthen in the short term, supported by repatriation flows from the upcoming SK Hynix US listing and a recent improvement in trading footing.
KRW MED
Conviction Trivedi Chief FX and Emerging Market Strategist, Goldman Sachs 30:04
Yen weakens to 165 on rate gap
The dollar/yen is forecast to reach 165 within 12 months because of persistent interest-rate differentials, a very gradual BOJ hiking cycle, dollar-supportive US macro conditions, and the role of the yen as a low-yielding carry funder. Periodic intervention may slow but not reverse the broader weakening trend.
FXY HIGH
Conviction Trivedi Chief FX and Emerging Market Strategist, Goldman Sachs 34:02
Carry basket: short low-yielders, long high-yielders
Carry trades funded by a basket of low-yielding currencies (JPY, EUR, SEK, ILS, CLP, THB) and invested in high-yielding currencies (COP, INR, EGP) offer both carry and resilience to hawkish shocks. Egyptian pound and Colombian peso are particularly favoured longs.
Indian rupee Colombian Peso Egyptian Pound MED
Conviction Trivedi Chief FX and Emerging Market Strategist, Goldman Sachs 34:02
Carry basket: short low-yielders, long high-yielders
Carry trades funded by a basket of low-yielding currencies (JPY, EUR, SEK, ILS, CLP, THB) and invested in high-yielding currencies (COP, INR, EGP) offer both carry and resilience to hawkish shocks. Egyptian pound and Colombian peso are particularly favoured longs.
SEK THB FXE Chilean Peso ILS MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 06, 2026, features Tim Graff, Conviction Trivedi discussing USD, KRW, FXY, Indian rupee, Colombian Peso, Egyptian Pound, SEK, THB, FXE, Chilean Peso, ILS. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tim Graff, Conviction Trivedi  · Tickers: USD, KRW, FXY, Indian rupee, Colombian Peso, Egyptian Pound, SEK, THB, FXE, Chilean Peso, ILS