Iran Feels It Has 'New Leverage' In MidEast Amid War with US

Summary

Michael Allen of Beacon Global Strategies discusses the expiration of the Iran MOU and the Strait of Hormuz blockade as a waiting game that may keep oil prices supported while straining the U.S. consumer. He also argues Iran sees new leverage and is rebuilding military capability, and he criticizes Trump's decision to reduce joint military exercises with South Korea despite North Korea's role in the axis of upheaval.

• Iran MOU expired with no replacement, leaving the Strait of Hormuz blockade as the main pressure mechanism.
• Allen frames the situation as two clocks: U.S. tolerance for oil prices versus Iran's economic endurance.
• He says Iran feels it has new leverage and is rebuilding capability to restore regional influence.
• Trump threatened to bomb Oman amid talks over Strait shipping routes; Allen says private diplomacy would be more effective.
• The U.S. is reportedly restocking bombers and refuelers to maintain credible military force.
• Trump ordered a substantial reduction in joint military exercises with South Korea, citing relations with Kim Jong Un.
• Allen says North Korea is not a passive threat and reducing exercises weakens U.S. deterrence.