It's not 1929, but it might be - Andrew Ross Sorkin | TCAF 224

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 09, 2026 at 14:01  |  1:06:15  |  The Compound News
Speakers
Andrew Ross Sorkin — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
Josh Brown — CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Michael Batnick — Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Summary

The episode features Andrew Ross Sorkin discussing his book 1929 with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick. They compare the 1920s crash to today, debate whether the market resembles 1929 or 1999, and analyze AI valuations, private-market excesses, SPACs, and financial media. The conversation also covers Andrew's interviewing career and CNBC Squawk Box.

  • Andrew argues today is not 1929 due to the SEC, FDIC, capital rules, better technology, and lower leverage.
  • The group debates 1929 vs. 1999 analogies, noting markets can still rise sharply before crashes.
  • Michael and Josh argue 2021 was the speculative bubble and today's market is healthier than it appears.
  • AI mega-caps show less euphoria than feared, with Microsoft, Nvidia, and Magnificent 7 valuations discussed.
  • Private-market valuations and tokenized semi-liquid vehicles are flagged for likely price-discovery haircuts.
  • Andrew discusses his book research, New York Fed minutes, and historical characters from 1929.
  • The conversation covers SPACs, tariffs, financial media, and Andrew's interviewing craft.
  • Andrew's role at CNBC Squawk Box and potential dream guests are also discussed.
Ideas
Andrew Ross Sorkin Co-Anchor, Squawk Box 12:23
Bond market may reject U.S. debt.
Andrew worries that if a crisis forces massive bailouts, the bond market could reject U.S. debt, driving interest rates sharply higher and creating an austerity spiral like 1932; therefore Treasuries carry tail risk.
TLT MED
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 12:45
Own Treasuries; U.S. owes itself.
Josh is personally loaded up on Treasuries and argues the bond market is unlikely to force a crisis because the U.S. largely owes the debt to itself, making domestic ownership a stabilizing factor.
TLT MED
Andrew Ross Sorkin Co-Anchor, Squawk Box 33:10
Staying invested beats Cassandra warnings.
Andrew says it rarely pays to be a Cassandra; over the last hundred years, investors have done better and become wealthier by staying invested rather than heeding most dire warnings.
SPY MED
Michael Batnick Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management 41:43
AI mega-caps are not a mania.
Michael argues AI mega-caps are not in a mania: Microsoft has barely outperformed, Nvidia has sold off, and Magnificent 7 forward P/E is unchanged despite euphoria in some areas.
MAGS MED
Andrew Ross Sorkin Co-Anchor, Squawk Box 42:33
Microsoft is backdoor OpenAI exposure.
Andrew has always focused on Microsoft because he views it as a public-market backdoor way to buy access to OpenAI, effectively getting exposure to the private AI leader through a public stock.
MSFT HIGH
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 45:25
Healthy bull market takes out trash.
Josh believes a healthy bull market takes out its own trash; speculative excesses like CoreWeave and Circle have corrected without a marketwide selloff, indicating the bull market remains healthy.
SPY MED
Michael Batnick Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management 46:48
2021 was bubble, now 2004.
Michael argues the speculative mania already occurred in 2020-2021, with record IPO volumes and ARK ETFs up 100%, so the current market is more like 2004 post-bubble than 1999, supporting a constructive equity view.
SPY MED
Andrew Ross Sorkin Co-Anchor, Squawk Box 49:24
Tokenized private market vehicles face haircuts.
Andrew expects private equity and venture capital to be tokenized into semi-liquid vehicles, but when these meet real price discovery they will likely see immediate 20-30% haircuts, showing private-market valuations are too high.
Private equity/venture capital tokenized vehicles HIGH
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This The Compound News video, published January 09, 2026, features Andrew Ross Sorkin, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick discussing TLT, SPY, MAGS, MSFT, Private equity/venture capital tokenized vehicles. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick  · Tickers: TLT, SPY, MAGS, MSFT, Private equity/venture capital tokenized vehicles