Trump’s Venezuela Deal Leaves $100 Billion Question Unanswered

Summary

Ellen Wald discusses the Trump administration's reported deal for a US stake in Venezuelan oil, arguing that the structure remains unclear and that near-term supply or gasoline-price benefits are unlikely. She highlights Venezuela's history of contract violations and nationalization as the main hurdle for foreign oil investment, and notes Chevron remains cautious pending stronger US assurances. Overall, the discussion is cautious on Venezuelan oil development despite long-term resource value.

• The reported deal may give the US a 35% passive stake and preferential rights to buy 20% of production at cost.
• Ellen Wald says the deal does not appear to be a seizure of Venezuelan oil fields.
• Venezuela's nationalization and contract history is the biggest deterrent to foreign capital.
• Some oilfields are undeveloped, so production ramp-up would take a long time.
• Chevron remains hesitant and wants US political, economic, and financial assurances before investing more.
• Venezuelan oil is valuable long-term but is likely a last-resort development target without guarantees.