You Can Never Win, You Can Never Be Right

Quoth the Raven · QTR’s Fringe Finance · May 22, 2026 at 19:38 · ⏱ 15 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that objective truth and market outcomes are disconnected; being fundamentally correct does not guarantee profits, and active trading often destroys portfolio value and mental health. The piece urges a shift toward patience, stillness, and protecting peace, while warning that the modern economy has gamified speculation into an addictive dopamine loop that erodes discipline and relationships.
  • The author states that active trading did more damage to his portfolio and mental health than almost any other investing activity.
  • He identifies that markets can be irrational for far longer than logic suggests due to liquidity, momentum, central bank intervention, and sentiment.
  • Short selling taught him that bad actors, fraud, and poor management can survive far longer than expected because of loopholes, bailouts, and lax regulation.
  • He notes that the line between investing, entertainment, speculation, and addiction has become indistinguishable with 24/7 access to prediction markets, sports betting, options, and crypto leverage.
  • The author quit fantasy sports, cut off sports betting apps, and now delegates his investments to advisors using sector ETFs, bonds, and conservative long-term holdings.
  • He reflects that public analysis is increasingly interpreted through tribalism and emotional loyalty tests rather than substance, citing a response to his SpaceX valuation critique that assumed personal bias against Elon Musk.
  • At 43, he prioritizes peace, health, relationships, and meaningful work over proving himself right in markets or online discourse.
  • The piece includes a detailed disclaimer emphasizing that the author often loses money, may hold opposing positions without notice, and that nothing is a recommendation.
Read time 15 min
Length 15,993 chars
Category finance
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