Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· March 21, 2026 at 10:57
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that China's potential to become the world's leading country may be faltering due to internal factors such as Xi Jinping's leadership, technological shifts, and systemic limitations. This situation is compared to the 1980s, when similar predictions about Japan's global dominance ultimately proved incorrect.
•China is exhibiting signs of weakness that could curtail its ascent to global dominance.
•Key contributing factors include Xi Jinping's paranoia, rapid technological change, and the limitations of China's political and economic system.
•The author draws a historical parallel to the 1980s, when Japan was widely expected to become the world's leading economic power, a forecast that did not materialize.