Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· March 12, 2026 at 19:41
· ⏱ 13 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
San Francisco's urban recovery under Mayor Lurie and a moderate liberal Board majority is fragile, hinging on a single supervisor election in June 2026. If Alan Wong loses, the hardline progressive faction could regain control, halting progress on housing and public order – a cautionary tale for other cities, but no direct tradeable securities are implicated.
•Crime in San Francisco fell 25% overall in 2025, with homicides at a 70-year low, property crimes down 27%, and violent crimes down 18%.
•Mayor Lurie's approval rating stood at 71% in November 2025, compared to 28% for his predecessor.
•Housing permit approval timelines were cut from an average of 605 days to about 280 days between Jan 2024 and Aug 2025.
•The Board of Supervisors flipped from a progressive supermajority to a slim 6-5 moderate liberal majority in the same 2024 election that brought Lurie to office.
•A special election for District 4 supervisor on June 2, 2026, will determine whether that slim majority holds; Alan Wong (pro-Lurie) faces well-funded rivals more opposed to the pro-housing agenda.
•The author donated $10,000 to GrowSF, a political advocacy group backing Wong, but does not mention any public-market security purchases or positions.