Maybe you should have bought an electric car

Noah Smith · Noahpinion · March 30, 2026 at 02:08 · ⏱ 13 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The Iran War-driven oil price spike exposes the economic and national security vulnerability of gasoline-powered cars, making a compelling case for electric vehicles. The U.S. is falling behind globally in EV adoption due to policy resistance and cultural FUD, which threatens its auto industry's long-term competitiveness and manufacturing base.
  • •Autoblog analysis found EV drivers pay 5 cents per mile vs 12 cents for gasoline cars, before the Iran War spiked gas prices.
  • •U.S. EV sales plateaued and fell even as global EV sales soared; Ford and GM announced $19.5B and $6B in EV-related write-downs.
  • •Countries including Philippines, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, Egypt, Myanmar, India, and Slovenia enacted emergency fuel rationing or energy measures due to the war.
  • •Oil prices are highly volatile due to inelastic demand and supply disruptions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz closure), while U.S. electricity prices remain stable due to fragmented natural gas markets.
  • •The oil shocks of 1973/1979 led to a sustained shift to fuel-efficient cars; a similar global shift to EVs is happening now, but the U.S. is resisting.
  • •Modern drone warfare makes maritime choke points harder to defend, increasing the frequency and severity of future oil supply shocks.
Read time 13 min
Length 13,602 chars
Category macro
Trade Ideas
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
Article reports GM announced a $6 billion EV-related write-down and that Detroit is 'pulling back from a transition that much of the world is accelerating', signaling poor capital allocation and compe
Article reports GM announced a $6 billion EV-related write-down and that Detroit is 'pulling back from a transition that much of the world is accelerating', signaling poor capital allocation and competitive disadvantage. Risk: GM’s Ultium platform and future product launches could still turn around, but the trend is negative.
GM
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
Article reports Ford announced a $19.5 billion EV-related write-down and 'utterly bungled its own EV rollout', indicating severe strategic missteps and capital destruction in the EV transition.
Article reports Ford announced a $19.5 billion EV-related write-down and 'utterly bungled its own EV rollout', indicating severe strategic missteps and capital destruction in the EV transition. Risk: Ford’s legacy ICE business provides some buffer, but continued write-downs and loss of EV market share are structural.
F
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
Article states 'Musk’s political antics made people stop wanting to buy Teslas' and that U.S. EV sales plateaued, suggesting Tesla faces demand headwinds in its home market despite overall global EV g
Article states 'Musk’s political antics made people stop wanting to buy Teslas' and that U.S. EV sales plateaued, suggesting Tesla faces demand headwinds in its home market despite overall global EV growth. Risk: Tesla's global scale and cost advantages may offset U.S. weakness; potential for rebound if Musk moderates.
TSLA
Noah Smith Economist; ex-columnist, Bloomberg Opinion
Article notes that in Southeast Asia 'buyers are flocking to Chinese EV giant BYD Co.’s stores' as gasoline prices surge, indicating strong demand tailwinds for BYD outside the U.S.
Article notes that in Southeast Asia 'buyers are flocking to Chinese EV giant BYD Co.’s stores' as gasoline prices surge, indicating strong demand tailwinds for BYD outside the U.S. Risk: U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions could limit BYD's direct U.S. market access.
BYDDY
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This newsletter, published March 30, 2026, features Noah Smith discussing GM, F, TSLA, BYDDY. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Noah Smith  · Tickers: GM, F, TSLA, BYDDY