Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· March 24, 2026 at 04:07
· ⏱ 12 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that the Democratic Party's embrace of progressive social positions, justified by a belief in an inevitable 'long arc of history' toward those values, is electorally dangerous. He warns that refusal to moderate on issues like trans rights, immigration, and crime — where public opinion and independent voters are far more conservative — could lock the party into a cycle of backlash, perpetuating political instability. For markets, the article implies continued policy uncertainty and gridlock, but offers no actionable trade signals.
•Democrats' net favorability is worse than the GOP, Donald Trump, or ICE itself, per an NBC News poll.
•54% of Democrats say people can change gender, but 74% of Independents say gender is determined at birth (AP poll).
•Independent voters are a large and growing plurality, and they see Democrats as far to the left of where Democrats see themselves (Cooperative Election Study).
•Public support for key trans movement demands has declined in recent years, even among Democrats.
•Historical losses for liberal priorities include the ERA failure, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the end of affirmative action in college admissions, and the abandonment of busing.
•The author argues that the 'long arc' belief mirrors Marxist faith in historical inevitability, ignoring the need for strategic compromise and risking repeated electoral losses.