Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· March 26, 2026 at 08:58
· ⏱ 10 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that AI labs are making a terrible sales pitch by highlighting existential extinction risks and economic obsolescence, which frightens the public instead of building support. He explains the rationales for forging ahead—immortality ambitions and competitive pressure—and suggests shifting the safety narrative to terrorism risks. For markets, the article implies ongoing regulatory uncertainty but offers no direct investment ideas.
•Sam Altman estimates AI extinction risk at ~2%; Dario Amodei at 10-25%.
•In a 2023 survey of 800 AI researchers, about a third gave a 10% or greater probability of human extinction from AI.
•The author cites two reasons for pushing ahead despite risks: the quest for immortality (via longevity technology) and fear that others (Elon Musk, China) will build it first.
•Dario Amodei's essay 'The Adolescence of Technology' outlines risks including autonomous godlike AI, super-powered terrorism, and fascism.
•The author criticizes the economic obsolescence narrative as an 'own goal' that alienates the public.
•The article recommends focusing safety messaging on concrete terrorism scenarios (e.g., AI creating super-viruses) rather than abstract extinction.