Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· April 01, 2026 at 10:29
· ⏱ 8 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that Japan has become a more 'normal' country over the last 20 years, losing its quirky youth-driven culture and feeling poorer despite being slightly richer, due to aging demographics, a weak yen, and infrastructure depreciation. The article is a cultural-sociological reflection with no direct market or trade implications.
•Japan's median age rose from ~42 in the mid-2000s to almost 50 now, with the working-age-to-elderly ratio falling from >3:1 to <2:1.
•The yen weakened from ~100-120 per dollar 20 years ago to 160 per dollar now, making locals feel poorer relative to foreign tourists.
•Younger Japanese are less visible in public spaces; the generation in their 20s is only about 60% as large as the generation now in their early 50s.
•The 'parasite singles' phenomenon of young adults living with parents and enjoying high disposable income has faded as parental wealth is depleted.
•Japan's built environment looks more weathered due to the end of a construction boom, even though functionality remains high.
•Youth culture motifs (anime, fashion, cheap trendy eateries) are declining in urban spaces, replaced by luxury brands and nice restaurants catering to older consumers.