Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· April 07, 2026 at 09:43
· ⏱ 5 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that Trump's presidency has led to disastrous outcomes, including an unwinnable war with Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices soaring. For markets, this implies sustained upward pressure on oil prices, benefiting U.S. shale producers while hurting import-dependent economies, and heightened geopolitical risk premiums across assets.
•Gasoline costs over $4 a gallon due to the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
•Trump imposed 'sky-high tariffs on dozens of countries at once' and then repeatedly walked them back.
•Iran took out an AWACS plane (one of only 16 the U.S. has) and several THAAD missile defense radars.
•Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending global oil, gas, and fuel prices soaring.
•Trump reduced oil sanctions on Iran in an unsuccessful attempt to get Iran to reopen the Strait.
•The U.S. has shale gas and shale oil reserves that help weather the oil shock better than other countries.