Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· February 27, 2026 at 09:21
· ⏱ 23 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith’s roundup argues that AI’s impact on productivity is still uncertain, building more high-end housing reduces rents across income levels, global poverty reduction has stalled mainly due to Africa, the U.S. is materially wealthier than peer countries, and economist George Borjas’s anti-immigration findings are methodologically flawed. The article contains no actionable trade ideas.
•Erik Brynjolfsson claims AI caused a ~2.7% US productivity increase in 2025, but critics note noise, data revisions, immigration policy changes, and capital utilization as alternative explanations.
•A new Honolulu condo study found 512 luxury units created at least 557 vacancies across the city, with prior homes 38% cheaper per square foot, supporting 'Yuppie Fishtank Theory'.
•Max Roser’s data shows extreme poverty (<$3/day) has nearly vanished outside Africa, but African poverty rates are not declining, so the global number of extremely poor is forecast to rise again.
•Alabama’s per capita GDP is higher than Canada’s overall; the state has a 2.7% unemployment rate and major auto/defense employers including Airbus, Northrop Grumman, Mercedes, Toyota, and Hyundai.
•Economist George Borjas’s finding that the Mariel Boatlift hurt low-skilled wages was debunked due to tiny sample sizes and census methodology changes; his recent H-1B wage gap paper had temporal mismatches and geographic biases.
•A survey of 6,000 executives across US, UK, Germany, Australia found 70% of firms use AI but over 80% report no impact on employment or productivity so far; executives predict a 0.7% employment cut, while employees predict a 0.5% increase.
•A European study by Aldasoro et al. found AI adoption causally increases labor productivity by 4% in the EU with no evidence of employment reduction in the short run, suggesting capital deepening rather than displacement.
•Cities that build more housing see falling rents; new luxury apartments in major US cities have driven rents on older units down as much as 11%, according to Bloomberg data.