Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· February 22, 2026 at 09:46
· ⏱ 13 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Noah Smith argues that Trump's tariffs are a failed policy: they haven't reduced the trade deficit, have hurt U.S. manufacturing, and are passed almost entirely onto American consumers. The Supreme Court struck down the president's broad IEEPA authority, but Trump continues using other legal loopholes to maintain tariffs, driven by a desire for personal power and control rather than economic logic.
•Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize presidential tariffs, citing Congress's exclusive power to levy taxes.
•Trump immediately invoked Section 122 to impose a 15% blanket tariff, but it is limited to 150 days and can be renewed.
•The U.S. trade deficit remained roughly unchanged despite tariffs, shifting from China to other countries.
•U.S. manufacturing shed workers for eight consecutive months after 'Liberation Day' tariffs; factory activity shrank for 26 straight months.
•The Kiel Institute found 96% of tariff costs are passed through to U.S. buyers; foreign exporters absorb only about 4%.
•Trump has granted broad exemptions for computers used in AI data centers, and is planning to scale back steel/aluminum tariffs to address an affordability crisis.