Why does America feel worse than other countries? Crime.
Noah Smith
· Noahpinion
· February 26, 2026 at 07:06
· ⏱ 20 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
America's persistently high crime rate—5-10x higher than other rich countries—is the primary driver of its unique quality-of-life deficits, including suburbanization, poor transit, and urban decay, while progressive norms that downplay crime prevent effective solutions. For markets, this essay has no direct trade implications but flags long-term structural drag on U.S. urban real estate and infrastructure investment unless crime is addressed.
•U.S. murder rate is 5-10 times higher than most rich countries, even after recent declines from 2021 peaks.
•92% of Americans have health insurance; U.S. health spending is high but out-of-pocket costs are lower than many peer countries.
•U.S. life expectancy gap vs. other rich countries is 2-4 years, mostly driven by obesity, drugs, and suicide—not systemic healthcare failure.
•U.S. fiscal system is more redistributive than most rich countries, and social welfare spending as % of GDP is comparable to Canada, Netherlands, Australia.
•U.S. house prices relative to incomes are ~12% above OECD average, but homes are much larger; housing production has been above average recently.
•Crime drives suburban flight: Cullen & Levitt (1999) found each reported city crime leads to ~1 resident leaving, especially households with children.
•BART ticket gate installation reduced crime by 54% and disorder on trains collapsed, showing enforcement can dramatically improve transit safety.
•Electing Republican prosecutors reduces mortality among young Black men primarily through firearm restrictions via conviction-based gun bans.