Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· June 03, 2026 at 08:38
· ⏱ 4 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The AI infrastructure boom may top when leading indicators such as Anthropic's revenue growth rate and GPU/DRAM prices signal a shift toward supply/demand balance for compute. The author, who is long the theme, warns that equity prices typically peak before earnings roll over, making it critical to watch forward-looking data rather than trailing fundamentals.
•Anthropic is raising at a $900B+ valuation based on expectations of $10.9B revenue in Q2, with revenues doubling every quarter.
•Anthropic signed a $1.25B/month deal with SpaceX to rent 300 MW of compute (the entire Colossus 1 datacenter).
•Historical booms (housing 2000-2006, energy 2005-2008, COVID beneficiaries) show equity prices peaking months before forward estimates and a year before trailing earnings.
•Memory makers like SK Hynix do not foresee supply deficits easing until 2030, and analysts see bottlenecks lasting through 2027.
•The author identifies GPU and DRAM memory prices as the preferred leading indicators because they incorporate both supply and demand signals.
•Investing in capacity to relieve bottlenecks is a double-edged sword: it boosts volume and profits but undermines the bottleneck narrative that drove stock valuations.
Read time4 min
Length4,460 chars
Categoryfinance
Trade Ideas
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
Article cites GPU prices as a preferred leading indicator; NVIDIA is the dominant GPU supplier whose pricing power directly reflects compute supply/demand dynamics.
Article cites GPU prices as a preferred leading indicator; NVIDIA is the dominant GPU supplier whose pricing power directly reflects compute supply/demand dynamics.
Risk: If GPU prices weaken, it would signal easing demand or oversupply, negative for NVDA's revenue trajectory.
Geo ChenGlobal macro trader; ex-head of FX trading, Credit Suisse
DRAM memory prices are flagged as a key leading indicator; Micron is a major DRAM and HBM supplier exposed to the same demand wave discussed for SK Hynix.
DRAM memory prices are flagged as a key leading indicator; Micron is a major DRAM and HBM supplier exposed to the same demand wave discussed for SK Hynix.
Risk: Same as SK Hynix: capacity additions could compress margins over time.