Geo Chen
· Fidenza Macro
· May 20, 2026 at 07:05
· ⏱ 2 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author discusses the return of inflation fears driving global yields and the dollar higher, while momentum equities fall. They argue the inflation surge may be temporary due to one-time factors like a statistical shelter bump and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The author explicitly states they have no current positions in bonds or FX, and the paid subscriber section contains portfolio updates not extractable here.
•Inflation fears are pushing global yields and the dollar higher, and momentum equities lower.
•The surge was triggered by a hot US PPI and lack of action on Iran during the Trump-Xi summit.
•The author believes an uncontrolled yield spiral is not guaranteed, citing Variant Perception's crash pattern indicator.
•Core CPI and PPI hot components may reverse: shelter is a BLS statistical artifact, gasoline/energy/trade services are tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
•Actual market rents (Apartment List National Rent Index) remain negative, highlighting a gap with shelter inflation.
•The author has no positions in bonds or FX, seeing no edge in betting on US-Iran peace negotiations.
•BofA Global Fund Manager survey shows bullish crowding in semis, which could create a contrarian buying opportunity.
•Paid subscriber section covers new equity portfolio adds, hedging, and thoughts on gold/silver – not extractable here.