Special Situations Digest - #6

Clark Square Capital · Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value · March 15, 2026 at 19:11 · ⏱ 71 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
This week's Special Situations Digest catalogs dozens of ongoing activist campaigns, strategic reviews, M&A deals, and restructuring events across global markets. The sheer volume of corporate activity—from Starboard's pushes at CarMax and Lamb Weston to Palliser's AI-semiconductor thesis on TOTO—signals elevated opportunities for event-driven investors, though the digest itself offers no explicit trade recommendations.
  • Starboard Value has built a sizable stake in Lamb Weston and is urging faster operational improvements and cost cuts, becoming one of the largest shareholders.
  • Starboard also took a $350M stake in CarMax, nominated two directors (including CEO Jeff Smith), and believes CarMax can cut administrative costs by over $300M.
  • Elliott Investment Management invested $1B in Pinterest via convertible notes (convertible at $22.72, 30% premium) and backed $1B in buybacks; Elliott already held ~$725M stake.
  • Oasis Management holds 6.64% of Kao Corporation, demanding an extraordinary meeting and an independent investigation into supply-chain deforestation and human rights allegations.
  • Palliser Capital argues TOTO is the 'most undervalued and overlooked AI memory beneficiary' – its semiconductor materials account for half of operating profit but receive minimal disclosure, and Palliser believes the stock could rise 55% with better communication.
  • Six Flags (post-merger with Cedar Fair) is addressing over $5.1B in debt and attendance issues while NFL star Travis Kelce partners as brand ambassador following his team-up with activist Jana Partners.
  • Domo launched a strategic review considering a sale, with shares surging 19% on the news; Q4 non-GAAP EPS beat expectations.
  • Santos is reportedly considering a demerger of lower-performing assets including Western Australia and Cooper Basin to refocus on LNG and Alaska.
Read time 71 min
Length 71,491 chars
Category finance
Trade Ideas
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Demerger of lower-performing assets would refocus Santos on higher-margin LNG and Alaska, potentially unlocking value. The restructuring follows similar moves by other diversified energy firms.
Demerger of lower-performing assets would refocus Santos on higher-margin LNG and Alaska, potentially unlocking value. The restructuring follows similar moves by other diversified energy firms. Risk: Execution complexity; regulatory approval hurdles; commodity price volatility in LNG markets.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Starboard Value's pressure to accelerate operational improvements and cost cuts could drive margin expansion and a re-rating. The activist is one of the largest shareholders, implying seriousness.
Starboard Value's pressure to accelerate operational improvements and cost cuts could drive margin expansion and a re-rating. The activist is one of the largest shareholders, implying seriousness. Risk: Execution risk: operational improvements may take longer than expected; commodity cost headwinds for potato products.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Starboard's $350M stake, board nominations, and specific cost-cutting plan ($300M+ in admin savings) suggest a credible catalyst. New CEO Keith Barr adds to turnaround narrative.
Starboard's $350M stake, board nominations, and specific cost-cutting plan ($300M+ in admin savings) suggest a credible catalyst. New CEO Keith Barr adds to turnaround narrative. Risk: Used car market cyclicality and interest rate sensitivity could offset operational gains.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Elliott's $1B investment via convertible notes plus a $3.5B buyback authorization signals strong alignment with shareholder value creation. The 30% conversion premium shows confidence.
Elliott's $1B investment via convertible notes plus a $3.5B buyback authorization signals strong alignment with shareholder value creation. The 30% conversion premium shows confidence. Risk: User growth and ad revenue recovery may disappoint; Elliott's influence could lead to near-term focus over long-term investment.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Palliser Capital's thesis that TOTO's semiconductor materials business (half of operating profit) is undervalued and undisclosed could unlock significant upside (55% target) if the company improves di
Palliser Capital's thesis that TOTO's semiconductor materials business (half of operating profit) is undervalued and undisclosed could unlock significant upside (55% target) if the company improves disclosure and investor communication. Risk: Activist pressure may not succeed; Japanese corporate governance reforms can be slow. Semiconductor cycle downturn could reduce materials profitability.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Oasis Management's allegations of supply-chain deforestation and human rights violations could lead to reputational damage, regulatory scrutiny, and forced remediation costs. The demand for an indepen
Oasis Management's allegations of supply-chain deforestation and human rights violations could lead to reputational damage, regulatory scrutiny, and forced remediation costs. The demand for an independent investigation adds uncertainty. Risk: If allegations are disproven or quickly resolved, share price could recover; Oasis may push for governance improvements that unlock value.
More from Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value

This newsletter, published March 15, 2026, features Clark Square Capital discussing STO.AX, LW, KMX, PINS, TOTO, 4452.T. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Clark Square Capital  · Tickers: STO.AX, LW, KMX, PINS, TOTO, 4452.T