Special Situations Digest - #5

Clark Square Capital · Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value · March 08, 2026 at 19:04 · ⏱ 86 min read  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
This weekly digest catalogues over 200 global special situations including activist campaigns, strategic reviews, M&A deals, and restructurings. It provides a data-rich snapshot of corporate activity and potential value catalysts, but does not advocate for any specific trade or disclose the author's own positions.
  • 25 activist campaigns are listed, including Voss Capital pushing Xponential Fitness for a sale and Elliott Management disclosing a $1B stake in Pinterest.
  • 13 strategic reviews are underway, such as Roots Corporation, BARK Inc., and Qiagen, with financial advisors engaged.
  • 61 M&A/divestiture items include major deals: L3Harris spinning off Missile Solutions, Accenture acquiring Ookla, and Nvidia investing $30B in OpenAI.
  • 68 restructuring situations range from Chapter 11 emergences (Nine Energy Service, Azul) to rights issues (Nanologica, Eezy) and liquidations (Ventus VCT).
  • Japanese companies face heightened activist pressure: Goldcrest (Sapphire Terra estimates 70% upside), Rengo (PBR still below average), and Kao (Oasis demanding EGM).
  • Bitcoin treasury companies are unwinding: GD Culture approved selling 7,500 BTC, MicroStrategy down to $133 from $473, and Empery Digital faces shareholder revolt.
Read time 86 min
Length 86,649 chars
Category finance
Trade Ideas
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Activist Sapphire Terra Capital estimates Goldcrest's true value at over 5,500 yen per share, ~70% above the March 5 close. The activist plans public proposals on financial strategy, suggesting potent
Activist Sapphire Terra Capital estimates Goldcrest's true value at over 5,500 yen per share, ~70% above the March 5 close. The activist plans public proposals on financial strategy, suggesting potential for significant re-rating. Risk: Activist proposals may be rejected; realization of value could take time or fail.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
A former Murakami Fund-affiliated investor took a new stake, causing a 4.1% surge, and PBR improved to 0.82x but remains below the TSE Prime average of 1.7x. Continued activist pressure could push for
A former Murakami Fund-affiliated investor took a new stake, causing a 4.1% surge, and PBR improved to 0.82x but remains below the TSE Prime average of 1.7x. Continued activist pressure could push for further capital efficiency improvements. Risk: PBR improvement may stall; company may not fully address undervaluation.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
The article reports Voss Capital's open letter demanding strategic alternatives due to EEFT's 54% 5-year decline and 6.5x earnings multiple vs historical 15-20x. The activist critique signals potentia
The article reports Voss Capital's open letter demanding strategic alternatives due to EEFT's 54% 5-year decline and 6.5x earnings multiple vs historical 15-20x. The activist critique signals potential governance or operational issues that could persist even if a sale is pursued. Risk: Activist campaign may not succeed; company could continue to underperform.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
Voss Capital (18.2% stake) argues that Club Pilates alone is worth more than the entire enterprise value and is pushing for a strategic review/sale. This activist pressure could lead to value realizat
Voss Capital (18.2% stake) argues that Club Pilates alone is worth more than the entire enterprise value and is pushing for a strategic review/sale. This activist pressure could lead to value realization through a sale or spin-off. Risk: Activist may not gain board seats; a sale process could disappoint if bids are low.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
The article notes FSK trades at a 48.3% discount to NAV with a 17.8% dividend yield, and speculates it could attract activist interest to unlock value. The deep discount and high yield create a cataly
The article notes FSK trades at a 48.3% discount to NAV with a 17.8% dividend yield, and speculates it could attract activist interest to unlock value. The deep discount and high yield create a catalyst for activist engagement or a strategic alternative. Risk: Discount could widen further if no activist steps in; BDC sector headwinds.
Clark Square Capital Substack author, Clark Square Capital's Ultimate Value
The article states MicroStrategy trades at $133 down from $473, with 14% of shares short, and notes that multiple Bitcoin treasury companies are unwinding positions. This suggests ongoing sentiment pr
The article states MicroStrategy trades at $133 down from $473, with 14% of shares short, and notes that multiple Bitcoin treasury companies are unwinding positions. This suggests ongoing sentiment pressure and a potential structural decline in the Bitcoin treasury strategy. Risk: Bitcoin price recovery could reverse the negative thesis; short squeeze risk.
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Speakers: Clark Square Capital  · Tickers: 8871.T, 3941.T, EEFT, XPOF, FSK, MSTR