Ideas
Microsoft's gaming division is underperforming with a 3% margin vs 39% overall, revenue down 6%, hardware sales down 33%, and Xbox CEO admits the business is not healthy. Additionally, Starbucks is de
Microsoft's gaming division is underperforming with a 3% margin vs 39% overall, revenue down 6%, hardware sales down 33%, and Xbox CEO admits the business is not healthy. Additionally, Starbucks is developing AI to replace Microsoft enterprise apps, threatening core revenue.
Risk: Gaming turnaround may take years; enterprise AI competition could erode Office/Cloud dominance.
Meta launched Muse Spark 1.1, its first paid closed model priced aggressively ($1.25/$4.25) with a 1M-token context and agentic focus, indicating a strategic shift to monetization. Competitive pricing
Meta launched Muse Spark 1.1, its first paid closed model priced aggressively ($1.25/$4.25) with a 1M-token context and agentic focus, indicating a strategic shift to monetization. Competitive pricing may drive adoption and revenues.
Risk: Shift from open-source could alienate developer community; model performance may lag leaders on some benchmarks.
DeepSeek's custom inference chip design effort is in talks with foundries including TSMC, but US export rules require approval for any chip made with American software/equipment. TSMC remains the prim
DeepSeek's custom inference chip design effort is in talks with foundries including TSMC, but US export rules require approval for any chip made with American software/equipment. TSMC remains the primary advanced fab, benefiting from any Chinese AI chip attempts that secure US approval, but also faces geopolitical risk.
Risk: US export restrictions could block DeepSeek's manufacturing, limiting revenue; any tightening could hurt TSMC's China exposure.
The article notes that DeepSeek's chip design requires advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to keep AI processors running at full speed, and that suppliers like SK Hynix and Samsung face export contro
The article notes that DeepSeek's chip design requires advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to keep AI processors running at full speed, and that suppliers like SK Hynix and Samsung face export controls. Micron, as a major HBM supplier, stands to benefit from sustained HBM demand even if Chinese customers are restricted, as non-China AI demand remains robust.
Risk: Export controls may limit addressable market; HBM pricing could soften if demand from China is cut off.
This newsletter, published July 12, 2026,
features Chamath Palihapitiya
discussing MSFT, META, TSM, MU.
4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Chamath Palihapitiya
· Tickers:
MSFT,
META,
TSM,
MU