Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· February 23, 2026 at 12:49
· ⏱ 24 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The New Deal social contract is broken due to AI-driven labor displacement, demographic aging, and policy choices that enriched existing asset holders. The author argues for taxing inheritance and consumption rather than productive income and unrealized gains, warning that the fiscal and political trajectory will lead to higher volatility and likely crisis. Markets face a choice between zero-sum wealth taxes (bearish equities) or capital-recycling inheritance taxes (neutral to positive), with the author explicitly long gold as a hedge.
•Over 90% of Americans born in 1940 earned more than their parents; for those born in 1984, barely 50%.
•Home formation for 26-41 year olds fell from 90% (1962) to 73.5%, with many living with parents or roommates.
•44% of Gen Z men report never having had a romantic partner during teen years, vs. 20% for Boomers.
•Top 1% wealth share passed the entire middle class (20th–80th percentile) around 2015; 1% now holds more than 60% of wealth.
•Americans aged 55+ held 56% of net worth in 1989; today 74%. Under-40s fell from 12% to 7%.
•US is running wartime deficits in peacetime; Social Security has been in cash-flow deficit since 2017.
•Labor share of GDP fell from 65% to 57% over 70 years; author warns AI could cut it to 50%, collapsing aggregate demand.
•Denmark (66% total tax burden) and Germany (55%) rely heavily on consumption/VAT, while the US (47%) leans on income and payroll taxes.
Read time24 min
Length24,935 chars
Categoryfinance
Trade Ideas
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author expects heightened volatility, policy uncertainty, and fiscal strain to support gold as a hedge during the transition.
This newsletter, published February 23, 2026,
features Alexander Campbell
discussing GOLD.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.