Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· February 13, 2026 at 03:40
· ⏱ 11 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Alexander Campbell argues that the market is dangerously crowded and correlated, with all assets trading as one crowded trade, making a sharp unwind likely. He advises derisking by cutting leverage, holding equity puts, shorting high-yield credit (HYG), and lifting bond shorts to go neutral or long bonds. The AI displacement trade is working rapidly, with IT services firms collapsing, while the macro picture remains confused between disinflation and weakening labor data.
•Top 10% of S&P 500 now represent ~60%+ of market cap, showing extreme concentration.
•Bitcoin and commercial real estate sold off together, signaling one crowded trade across assets.
•Timely inflation measures (Truflation) are falling off a cliff, suggesting room for Fed easing despite tariff fears.
•IT services firms (Cap Gemini -13%, Infosys -15%, Cognizant -15%, Wipro -10%) dropped sharply in four days on AI displacement thesis.
•Author cut leverage ~10%, lifted bond short, and recommends shorting HYG and buying puts on HYG for credit protection.
•Equity implied and realized correlations remain low, masking the risk of a synchronized unwind.
Read time11 min
Length11,497 chars
Categoryfinance
Trade Ideas
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Wipro down ~10% in the same period, included in the author's bearish thesis on legacy IT services being replaced by AI tools.
Wipro down ~10% in the same period, included in the author's bearish thesis on legacy IT services being replaced by AI tools.
Risk: Wipro has some diversification into digital services; the selloff may already be pricing extreme scenarios.
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Author explicitly names Infosys as one of the IT services firms 'about to get eviscerated' by AI, showing it dropped ~15% in four days as part of the 'Long APIs, Short Slides' thesis working.
Author explicitly names Infosys as one of the IT services firms 'about to get eviscerated' by AI, showing it dropped ~15% in four days as part of the 'Long APIs, Short Slides' thesis working.
Risk: Potential near-term bounce if AI adoption slows or IT services pivot successfully.
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Credit spreads are rich relative to weak equity market; eventually credit investors will demand higher risk premiums, so shorting high yield provides cheap protection and bearish exposure.
Alexander CampbellFounder & CEO, Rose AI; ex-macro investor, Bridgewater
Cognizant mentioned alongside other IT services firms down ~15% in four days, directly exposed to AI replacing billable-hours consulting work.
Cognizant mentioned alongside other IT services firms down ~15% in four days, directly exposed to AI replacing billable-hours consulting work.
Risk: Same as above; value trap if market overreacts.
This newsletter, published February 13, 2026,
features Alexander Campbell
discussing WIT, INFY, HYG, CTSH.
4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.