Alexander Campbell
· Campbell Ramble
· February 15, 2026 at 22:29
· ⏱ 27 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that SBF's claim that FTX was 'money good' is a fraud designed to secure a pardon, using detailed balance-sheet analysis to show a $12.1B hole in customer funds. The piece concludes that the rehabilitation narrative is a coordinated family operation and that two-tiered justice erodes rule of law, though it offers no market-directional trades or asset-level calls.
•FTX had $3.4B in realizable assets against $16B customer liabilities once Alameda’s $14B IOU (worthless) is stripped out — a $12.6B hole.
•Alameda’s $18.5B book value included $5.9B in self-created FTT tokens and $4.1B in uncollectible insider loans; realizable assets were ~$5.5B vs $17B liabilities.
•SBF messaged an '$8.1B shortfall' on November 7, 2022, the day before halting withdrawals — direct admission of insolvency.
•Creditors receiving 118% after bankruptcy does not prove solvency; it reflects asset recovery over 2+ years in a bull market (Solana from $10 to $180+, Bitcoin tripling) plus clawbacks and the Anthropic stake windfall.
•The Chapsky declaration (claiming net positive Alameda balance) is rebutted by Caroline Ellison’s sworn testimony that Alameda couldn’t pay, seven fake balance sheets, and the withdrawal halt.
•Joseph Bankman (Stanford tax professor) designed a scheme to funnel $10M from Alameda to himself tax-free via a 'gift' structured as a loan, and researched bankruptcy-remote asset protection a year before the collapse.
•Barbara Fried co-ran Mind the Gap PAC, directing straw donations; Nishad Singh and Ryan Salame pled guilty to identical conduct.
•The article contrasts SBF’s 25-year sentence for $12B fraud with Curtis Wilkerson’s 25-to-life for stealing $2.50 socks, arguing two-tiered justice erodes rule of law.