Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· February 04, 2026 at 11:18
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
=== SUMMARY ===
•The author's central thesis is that the US yield curve is too flat and is poised to steepen.
•This steepening is expected to be driven by two main forces: 1) The short-end of the curve is underpricing future Fed rate cuts, which should drive short-term yields lower. 2) The long-end of the curve is underpricing resilient US nominal growth, future Treasury supply, and a structural investor overweight in duration, which should put upward pressure on long-term yields.
Summary
The author argues that the yield curve, which has seen mostly parallel shifts, is under increasing pressure to steepen. This analysis of the bond market is contrasted with the more exciting, mainstream topics of meme stocks and commodities.
•Yield curve shifts have been subdued and mostly parallel since last May.
•The author anticipates increasing pressure on both the long and short ends of the curve, leading to further steepening.
•Discussing the bond market is framed as a less exciting endeavor compared to popular retail trends like meme stocks and commodities.