The Week Ahead 2026.02.01

=== SUMMARY === - The author identifies a relative value opportunity in US stocks, which have lagged the broader rally in financial assets despite strengthening US economic data. - A core thematic view of "debasement" remains in play, supported by profitable long gold and short US dollar positions in January. - The upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting is a key short-term catalyst, with the author expecting the first rate hike of the cycle, signaling a significant policy shift. === TRADE IDEAS === IDEA [1] TICKER: US Equities DIRECTION: LONG SPEAKER: author THESIS: 1. THE FACT: The author notes that despite a surge in hard economic data and a bottoming in soft data, US stocks have been a "laggard among financial assets," up only a little over 1% in January. 2. THE BRIDGE: This underperformance relative to other assets and relative to the improving economic picture creates a potential catch-up opportunity. The author is actively questioning if "the case for stocks is building." 3. THE VERDICT: Long US equities as a relative value play, betting they will rally to catch up with both the stronger economic reality and the performance of other financial assets. TIMEFRAME: medium-term IDEA [2] TICKER: AUD DIRECTION: LONG SPEAKER: author THESIS: 1. THE FACT: The author highlights the upcoming RBA meeting, stating it's "likely to be the first time the RBA moves rates *higher* in this cycle." 2. THE BRIDGE: A central bank beginning a new tightening cycle is a significant hawkish event. This policy divergence should increase the relative yield and attractiveness of the Australian dollar. 3. THE VERDICT: Long the Australian Dollar (AUD) in anticipation of a hawkish pivot from the RBA, which would likely strengthen the currency. TIMEFRAME: short-term IDEA [3] TICKER: GLD / DXY DIRECTION: LONG / SHORT SPEAKER: author THESIS: 1. THE FACT: The author states that their "debasement" theme was consistent with January's price action, and that their long gold and short do

The author reviews a volatile week in financial markets, noting that despite a sharp reversal, January remained a strong month for risk assets. The piece reflects on the tension between asset mania, stronger-than-expected US economic growth, and ongoing currency debasement trends, while anticipating upcoming central bank meetings and employment data. • US stocks have lagged recently despite a pickup in hard economic data and a bottoming in soft data. • Upcoming central bank meetings are in focus, with the RBA potentially hiking rates, signaling an end to the multi-year easing cycle. • The upcoming employment report is expected to show a pickup in the job market, aligning with consensus expectations of a 70k gain. • Recent portfolio performance saw gains in gold and short dollar positions offsetting losses in short financial assets and long 2-year Treasuries, driven by stronger-than-expected growth and asset mania.