Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· March 03, 2026 at 11:06
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author introduces the concept that elevated expectations surrounding a current conflict create significant risks for asset markets. A negative turn of events could have an outsized impact, and understanding this requires analyzing both the macroeconomic shock and consensus market positioning.
•High expectations for a current conflict have created unusually heightened risks.
•If the situation turns negative, the market impact could be severe due to this positioning.
•To understand how a shock will affect assets, one must consider both its macroeconomic impact and the existing consensus positioning.