Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· June 25, 2026 at 09:47
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Australia's economy was running as the hottest in the developed world before the Iran-war oil shock, and the RBA was the first large developed central bank to tighten. The article argues that markets are underpricing this resilience, which implies potential upside for Australian assets (AUD, bonds, equities) relative to consensus.
•For much of the last year, Australia has run the hottest economy in the developed world.
•Even before the Iran-war oil shock, the RBA was the first large developed central bank to act (presumably tighten policy).
•The article's title 'Underpricing Aussie Resilience' suggests market expectations are too pessimistic about Australia's ability to withstand the oil shock.