Bob Elliott
· Nonconsensus
· June 24, 2026 at 16:46
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Summary
The article argues that a significant disinflationary impulse is approaching just as the market has priced in more rate hikes, creating a mismatch. The author's thematic position is to fade (bet against) those hike expectations, which implies a bearish view on short-term interest rates and a bullish view on bonds if disinflation materializes.
•Macro conditions are aligning for a 'significant disinflationary impulse.'
•Market expectations for rate hikes have 'increased significantly' recently.
•The author's thematic position is to 'fade' the current rate hike pricing.