China’s Deleveraging Grinds On

Bob Elliott · Nonconsensus · May 18, 2026 at 09:52  | Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The author argues that China remains entrenched in a severe deleveraging cycle characterized by weak economic fundamentals that overshadow any short-term boosts from exports or AI. Furthermore, the recent Xi-Trump summit failed to produce any meaningful macroeconomic shifts.
  • China is stuck in a deep deleveraging cycle with weak credit growth, falling investment, and soft consumption.
  • Structural economic weaknesses in China are overwhelming any temporary benefits from exports or AI demand.
  • The recent Xi-Trump summit resulted in no significant macroeconomic changes, maintaining the current economic status quo.
Length 246 chars
Category finance
More from Nonconsensus