The author argues that the prevailing narrative of AI investment driving the broader US economy is overstated. Once adjustments are made for imports and pre-existing software investment trends, the actual macroeconomic impact of AI capital expenditure is minimal.
•Many market participants believe AI investment is currently driving the US economy.
•Accounting for imports and the pre-AI run rate of software investment shows that AI's true macro impact is minimal.
•Charts showing surging AI capex are frequently used to push a misleading narrative about broader economic growth.