The author argues that current market pricing reflects an expectation of an inflationary boom, characterized by surging stocks, oil, and yields. However, the author views this scenario as highly implausible given the absence of the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus seen in the past.
•Markets are currently pricing in an inflationary boom, driving up stocks, oil, and yields.
•This economic path is deemed implausible without the fiscal and monetary largess that supported previous booms.
•Cross-market pricing divergence has widened recently, with both short and long-term oil prices remaining near their highs.