$ALM CEO Interview Analysis: The Micron Of Critical Metals?
Asymmetrical Bets
· Asymmetrical Bets
· 20 августа 2026, 17:37
· ⏱ 13 мин чтения
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Резюме
Almonty’s tungsten thesis is presented as intact despite the stock being 34% off highs: tungsten supply is structurally constrained for years, China is moving downstream, and Almonty’s revenue and margin projections are multiples above the plan it was built around. For markets, this implies sustained tungsten pricing power, a sharp revenue ramp for Almonty, and risk for downstream buyers without secured supply.
•Almonty trades around $16, roughly 34% below highs, while revenue grew 498% YoY and it holds C$1.2B cash.
•CEO Lewis Black sees the tungsten supply/demand imbalance lasting 5–6 years, with no new supply except Almonty’s Korea mine until Chinese recycling develops.
•Almonty was designed around $250–$350 tungsten prices; spot is currently $3,100, and Black cites a future $1,000 price floor once recycling energy costs are factored in.
•Management projects ~$100M revenue from Portugal this year, $400–450M from Korea phase one, and roughly $700M total by 2027 if tungsten prices hold.
•Molybdenum adds a potential $300M/year revenue stream at current prices under a $19/lb floor with no cap from an in-country customer.
•The offtaker Global Tungsten and Powders (Plansee Group) voluntarily extended an existing contract by six years and raised pricing ~6.3% because material is scarce.
•Black says downstream customers with vertical integration, like Plansee Group and Sandvik, are already taking share from tungsten buyers without secured supply.
Author profiles Almonty as a Western monopoly tungsten producer with 498% revenue growth, C$1.2B cash, contract floors, and a CEO who sees a 5–6 year supply deficit; price ~34% off highs despite stron
Author profiles Almonty as a Western monopoly tungsten producer with 498% revenue growth, C$1.2B cash, contract floors, and a CEO who sees a 5–6 year supply deficit; price ~34% off highs despite stronger fundamentals suggests market underappreciation.
Risk: Revenue and pricing projections rely on CEO estimates and sustained spot tungsten prices; future equity dilution and customer credit risk remain.
Black explicitly says downstream tungsten customers with vertical integration like Plansee Group or Sandvik are already taking market share from non-integrated tungsten buyers.
Black explicitly says downstream tungsten customers with vertical integration like Plansee Group or Sandvik are already taking market share from non-integrated tungsten buyers.
Risk: If tungsten prices stay elevated, even integrated buyers may see input-cost margin pressure if contracts lag spot.
This newsletter, published August 20, 2026,
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