$LPTH CEO Interview: This China Free Optics Stock Supplying Anduril Grew Revenue 109%
Asymmetrical Bets
· Asymmetrical Bets
· August 11, 2026 at 16:21
· ⏱ 2 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that an escalating 'optical trade war' and China's restriction of critical materials like germanium are creating a massive repricing opportunity for Western defense optics suppliers. Companies with proprietary, non-Chinese supply chains and integrated system capabilities are positioned to capture significant value as domestic drone and defense demand accelerates.
•China has cut off exports of germanium to the US, disrupting the Western defense supply chain for infrared optics.
•The FCC is drafting a ban on new Chinese optical transceivers that could be implemented before the end of the year.
•LightPath Technologies ($LPTH) bypassed the germanium shortage by developing 'BlackDiamond,' a proprietary chalcogenide glass molded in-house.
•Through its Visimid acquisition, LPTH transitioned from a component lens supplier to a full thermal imaging module provider, increasing its dollar content per unit.
The author highlights LPTH's unique non-China positioning, proprietary germanium-free glass, and transition to a higher-margin systems supplier as key catalysts for upside amid surging drone demand.
The author highlights LPTH's unique non-China positioning, proprietary germanium-free glass, and transition to a higher-margin systems supplier as key catalysts for upside amid surging drone demand.
Risk: The stock is already up 3.5x over the last year, suggesting that a significant portion of the non-China supply chain thesis may already be priced in.
The article notes that the FCC is drafting a ban on new Chinese optical transceivers before year-end, which logically benefits domestic and non-Chinese optical transceiver suppliers like Lumentum.
The article notes that the FCC is drafting a ban on new Chinese optical transceivers before year-end, which logically benefits domestic and non-Chinese optical transceiver suppliers like Lumentum.
Risk: Potential delays in the FCC drafting process or inability to scale domestic manufacturing quickly enough to meet displaced demand.
Similar to Lumentum, Coherent stands to benefit as a non-Chinese supplier of optical transceivers if the FCC successfully bans Chinese competitors from the US market.
Similar to Lumentum, Coherent stands to benefit as a non-Chinese supplier of optical transceivers if the FCC successfully bans Chinese competitors from the US market.
Risk: Exposure to broader macroeconomic cyclicality in the telecom and networking sectors outside of defense.
This newsletter, published August 11, 2026,
features Asymmetrical Bets
discussing LPTH, LITE, COHR.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.