Who's Really in Charge of Iran?

Summary

• The core uncertainty is identifying the actual power brokers within Iran's leadership, which complicates negotiations and public statements.
• A plausible scenario is that any US communication is with figures from the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) or the Supreme National Security Council (e.g., Ali Shamkhani), providing Iran deniability versus dealing directly with the Supreme Leader.
• President Trump's primary political objective is to secure a deal and declare victory without committing US ground forces, avoiding parallels to the Iraq/Afghanistan wars.
• A "military victory" could be defined by the destruction of IRGC leadership, missile stockpiles, and other military targets.
• The most critical strategic objective for the US exit is ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open; failure would mean the conflict merely "stirred up a hornet's nest."
• Iran is unlikely to fully cede control of the Strait of Hormuz; they seek economic benefits but also want to maintain sovereign power and have a say in terms.
• Future negotiations may involve trade-offs like halting missile programs for 5 years or agreeing to zero uranium enrichment, with the status of the Strait being a key bargaining chip.