Ian Bremmer says Iran War's Not "Priced into the Markets" Yet

Summary

• Ian Bremmer argues the current Iran war and, critically, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are not yet "priced into the markets."
• He assesses a minimum of four weeks before the U.S. can begin escorted ship movements through the Strait, with a return to normal capacity taking much longer.
• The principal ongoing threat is from Iranian drone strikes, which can continue for months, posing a persistent risk to Gulf energy infrastructure and oil transit.
• U.S. alliances, particularly with Europe, are "very fractured," but European powers recognize their dependence on open sea lanes and are shifting from "not our war" to engaging diplomatically on the problem.
• A key market vulnerability is economic: the Trump administration's short-term priority is lowering oil prices, leading to seemingly incoherent policy like OFAC waivers for Iranian oil.
• Gulf state capitals are concerned the U.S. may wind down the conflict before securing durable maritime access, leaving Iran with de facto control over the Strait.
• The conflict's second and third-order effects on global supply chains—beyond oil to fertilizers, plastics, and auto parts—will take months to hit market prices but will then be persistent.
• Bremmer compares the current moment to the "early days of the pandemic," where the longer-term, widespread economic ramifications are being underestimated.