▶ Full Post Text
[+410] u/azure275: ITT: A bunch of people making shit up to confirm their own preconception the economy is great or trash
If anything Bears are even worse than Bulls about it these days but it's both
[+195] u/NegativeSemicolon: They printed all that money, had to go somewhere
[+165] u/Beautiful_Technology: Here’s what actually happened. We were running out of narrative. We were Hella running out of narrative. The only thing America had was NFT’s and it wasn’t looking great. And then bam. Along comes ChatGPT. Now AI is the narrative. And the wheels are starting to fall off that story. The story drives the market. Not the other way around.
[+49] u/Revfunky: Anytime the Economist says it’s going down, that is a time to buy. Anytime they show a chart on the front cover I’m a buyer. I’m a fan of the magazine and their journalistic integrity but I don’t make my stock decisions on their articles or front pages.
Don’t listen to talking heads.
[+46] u/Penguin_Life_Now: I have been hearing about upcoming recession talk since I was a kid 50 years ago (my grandfather was a banker, so stock market talk was dinner table conversation growing up), sometimes it ends up happening, often it does not, and guessing which time will be which is what makes some people rich, and some people poor.
[+41] u/Sp00kyC4py: The main factor in the SP500 ripping after the outset of the Ukraine War and initial bear market, was the initial frenzy into Mag7 stocks due to OpenAI releasing GPT-4 in early 2023 and giving one more moonshot to Big Tech. OpenAI and Anthropic's doom-trolling reached fever pitches last fall, where the Mag7 continued to rip in anticipation of massive AI productivity adoption by consumers and enterprise.
Without the AI rip, the stock market has been and will continue to be in a bear market. With OpenAI's leaked revenues knelling the bell for tens of billions in losses per year (and Anthropic cooking their books to be profitable... So long as they don't include costs?) the AI story is approaching the same death spiral as the Metaverse did on poor user adoption numbers.
Also note that Mag7 companies are no longer investing into the AI data center buildout using cashflow, but have leveraged their balance sheets into junk bonds that rival their real assets. This makes them far less appealing investments if/when the datacenter buildout meets opposition or financial drag due to regulatory measures & low consumer/enterprise AI adoption and low/no profitability of AI on the consumer end via OpenAI & Anthropic. These were asset-light, high-profit money printers; now they are becoming low-profit, highly-leveraged bets on an already-failed technology (at least Meta wasn't leveraged for the Metaverse).
The recession is already here outside of Mag7 companies and investment, insofar as stagnation or earnings decline. As far as the labor numbers go, they aren't so much cooked as the market has become more efficient at allocating people into contractor roles like Doordash and Uber to sit below the poverty line. Those of us who would've been laid off are under employed, but used to prop up outdated BLS methods that predate the gig economy.
TL;DR: AI Bubble is propping up the entire stock market and most indexes. Labor metrics are outdated in response to the gig economy and definitions of employment. We are in a bear market and would be in a paper recession if not for the gig economy.
[+33] u/MadameSaintM: Oh ya it's just great that the value of the dollar went to shit
[+17] u/Pndapetzim: There probably would've been a recession if not for 2023 being the breakout year for AI hyperscaling and conversion of the US to an NVIDIA based economy.
[+16] u/trev581: What did you plug into the prompt to get AI to write such an eloquent nothing burger?
[+10] u/JackieDaytona77: Everyone’s always discussing the upcoming recession. The experts on Reddit since 2010
[+7] u/TrabLlechtim: Economists have successfully predicted 17 of the past 5 recessions.
[+6] u/Succulent_Rain: Economists and analysts don’t always know what’s correct. In fact I would say that many of them are guessing just like the rest of us retail investors. But even an average retail investor like me knew that that once bond yields went up in the summer of 2021, that it was inevitable that the Fed would start raising rates. I liquidated many of my positions in the fall of 2021 and set limit buys for about 25% or so below where they were trading at. Little did I imagine that they would go as low as 65% for some of the Cathy Wood ETFs. In September 2022, I set several limit by orders for a whole bunch of European, Tech, and NASDAQ ETFs and those all triggered in October 2022 at the bottom of the bar market. I caught that right at the bottom but did not put too much money into the stock market in 2023 until September 2023 where I invested in some broad-based sector ETFs because of some turmoil. I too thought there would be a recession because when you raise interest rates, growth stocks will go down and so will housing. None of this happened and I’m especially surprised about housing. What saved us with ChatGPT and generative AI. There was also a ton of layoffs in Tech which increased earnings for them. But we are now at a juncture where everyone is up to their eyeballs in debt thinking that AI will save us. History might not rhyme, but it often repeats. We are already in a higher interest rate era, bond yield have gone higher, and the Fed will raise rates this year itself instead of early next year. We will see a correction. The magnitude of that is unknown but I predicted October 23, 2026 will be a pretty bad day for the stock market. That’s when the downfall begins.
[+6] u/i-reddit2: They economists aren’t wrong, it’s just the administration is manipulating the fuck out of the economy for as long as possible so that the Dems have to fix it when Trump is done bankrupting our nations morals, treasury, and citizens.
[+6] u/easylife12345: Conclusion - timing is hard. DCA is your friend, have a little cash saved and a short list for when the market tumbles
[+5] u/CovTaude588: The useful lesson from 2022 is that even a 100% recession forecast isn't actionable. I kept buying my broad index fund monthly, because trying to sell and then choose the right date to get back in would have required two correct calls instead of one. Most retail mistakes are emotional rather than analytical, imo.
[+5] u/Flimsy-Award-8197: it will happen tomorrow....just keep moving the goal post