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The recession that never came, and lessons to learn
The S&P 500 entered a bear market in 2022 and finished the year -18.11%.
Everyone was talking about the upcoming recession.
* In October 2022, Bloomberg Economics declared there was a 100% probability of a recession within the next 12 months.
* The Economist published a piece titled “Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023.” Nearly 70% of economists surveyed predicted the National Bureau of Economic Research would officially declare a recession in 2023.
* Major financial institutions warned clients to brace for impact.
* Morgan Stanley predicted stocks would “re-test” the 2022 lows in the first half of 2023.
* Bank of America’s chief economist warned 2023 “A recession is all but inevitable in the U.S.”
* JPMorgan saw more pain ahead before any recovery.
* The Mortgage Bankers Association stated flatly, “We are expecting a recession in the first half of 2023.”
* The message was clear: The 18% decline in 2022 was just the beginning. The massive government spending during COVID was coming home to roost. Inflation would remain elevated. Corporate earnings would collapse. Unemployment would surge.
Here’s what actually happened:
2023 S&P 500 gained 26.29% , one of the strongest years on record. Then it gained another 25.02% in 2024.
No recession. No earnings collapse. No return to 2022 lows.
All of the economists, strategists, and market timers weren’t just slightly off. They were spectacularly, comprehensively wrong.
In 2025, Trump enacted tariffs, fears of high inflation returned. reddit was again plagued with recession and crash posts getting 1000s of upvotes. Everybody said this was for real, this time feels different.
* April: [It’s Over. The Market Is Cooked. Hope You Enjoyed the Ride.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jrk43o/its_over_the_market_is_cooked_hope_you_enjoyed/)
* April [Suicide Hotline](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jrmmdq/suicide_hotline/)
* April [Current Crash against major ones](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/1k2g79x/current_crash_against_major_ones/)
* May: [The stock market will crash even further](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1jryzrw/the_stock_market_will_crash_even_further/)
* June: [Why I am bearish on S&P and sitting tight on my puts](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1l6532i/why_i_am_bearish_on_sp_and_sitting_tight_on_my/)
* July: [Are we facing a stock market crash in July? Trump’s “Section 899”](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1l3asmb/are_we_facing_a_stock_market_crash_in_july_trumps/)
* August: [Do you expect a crash – August tariff deadline?](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1m2ijwp/do_you_expect_a_crash_august_tariff_deadline/)
* September: [Anyone else getting that “September’s gonna punch us in the face” feeling?](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1m30bjk/anyone_else_getting_that_septembers_gonna_punch/)
* October: [When do we start discussing the October Effect? I kind of feel we are in for a big correction](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/1mkdo80/when_do_we_start_discussing_the_october_effect_i/)
* October [Get ready, we're going over the falls](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1o40l7f/get_ready_were_going_over_the_falls/)
* October [Stock Market Crash "Hindenburg Omen" Triggered](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/1okl9c1/stock_market_crash_hindenburg_omen_triggered_the/)
* November: [There's been a few hiccups here and there in this rally, but this one feels different…](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1oqyhzv/nasdaq_headed_for_worst_week_since_liberation_day/nnmo89c/)
* December [honestly just sold everything. this market feels fake.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1pidr40/honestly_just_sold_everything_this_market_feels/)
* December [I feel like I’m watching a slow-motion rug pull](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1q058cv/i_feel_like_im_watching_a_slowmotion_rug_pull_am/)
What happened?
2025 S&P500 total return 17.88%
In 2026, the continued tariff trade war, the war between Russia and Ukraine, AI propelling markets higher and now the war with Iran, the strait of Hormuz and the global oil supply, bond markets rising yields, everybody knew this year was it, the crash is coming. the recession is nigh.
how has reddit reacted this year?
* March [This is just sick ](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1s1ivqi/this_is_just_sick/)
* March [We are almost there, blood in the streets ](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1s5dtzs/we_are_almost_there_blood_in_the_streets/)
* April [The Stock Market is in its most overextended state in history](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1slqarf/the_stock_market_is_in_its_most_overextended/)
* May [Top Economist Says The Risks Of A Recession Are 'Uncomfortably High’](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1tji8u1/top_economist_says_the_us_job_market_is_already/)
* May [gold dropped 114 dollars on friday while CPI is at 3.8% and PPI at 6%. the bond market is telling you something the fed will not say yet ](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1tfx0yy/gold_dropped_114_dollars_on_friday_while_cpi_is/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* June [We are headed for an economic crisis worse than 2008 ](https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1ttxv4i/we_are_headed_for_an_economic_crisis_worse_than/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* June [The next Financial Crisis is here, and it's not just AI. ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ucpnbj/the_next_financial_crisis_is_here_and_its_not/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* June [There is a bloodbath ](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1txtobk/there_is_a_bloodbath/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* August [How likely is it that the stock market crashes under President Donald Trump in the second half of 2026? Here's what history tells us.](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/1vvfo7n/msn_how_likely_is_it_that_the_stock_market/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* September [Bye bye USD ... ](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/1w74xob/bye_bye_usd/)
2026 S&P500 total return YTD- 12.77%
As Lynch told investors many years ago, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
Stop listening to the noise. Don’t panic sell. don’t change your portfolio based on what the economy is doing right now or what it’s expected to do in the near term, or the sentiment on reddit, or the sentiment of economists and mega bank executives etc. because nobody has a clue what will happen. They don't know. I don't know, you don't know. don't even try to know. Set up auto investing into a diversified portfolio of low cost index funds in tax advantaged accounts. if you buy individual stocks, do your homework, know what you own, run your own DCF models, and buy with a good 30-50% margin of safety. Can’t find too many stocks with that criteria right now? throw excess cash in Sp500 until then. now you know why Buffett sits on so much capital waiting years for opportunities, and not trying to make the math work in your favor because you really want to get in right now like FOMO.