TOYO follow-up: I went back through the filings after the comments. Here’s what I found.

I dug into the CBP/UFLPA issue because that was one of the bigger red flags for me too. It's still unresolved, but the actual detained entries were tiny, about 0.094 MW worth $13.8K. The important part is the precedent, not the dollar amount. CBP is reviewing TOYO's traceability package. It has not made a forced-labor finding, and management has said imports have not completely stopped. On the Q2 call they said they expect the detained entries released this quarter, with the caveat that CBP's timing is unpredictable. The sourcing defense is also pretty specific. TOYO says its 2026 Ethiopia production uses no Chinese-origin wafers, with polysilicon currently about 70% U.S. and 30% Malaysian, moving toward 100% U.S. That doesn't guarantee clearance, but it's very different from an opaque China-dependent supply chain. On the moat being "just trade compliance," I think that's partly true. But that's also why they're spending $357M trying to turn the temporary advantage into something more permanent. They're targeting roughly 2 GW of Texas module capacity, planning a 1.5 GW U.S. HJT cell plant, and U.S. production brings 45X into the picture. From Dec. 4, Section 232 also sets minimum import prices of $0.22/W for cells and $0.38/W for modules, which makes domestic manufacturing more valuable. Competitors can eventually figure out compliance too, but they still need non-Chinese wafers, traceable polysilicon, manufacturing capacity and customers. TOYO has already spent years building that supply chain. Commerce is the bigger risk than CBP in my view. The Ethiopia circumvention inquiry is real, and the preliminary determination is expected around mid-December. If that goes badly, current earnings could take a serious hit. But that outcome hasn't happened yet, and TOYO's defense is specific enough to actually test rather than just management saying "trust us." T1 is worth well over $1B despite still losing money, because the market trusts the U.S. manufacturing story. TOYO earned $45.8M in H1 and is worth under $200M because the market clearly doesn't trust the durability of those earnings. Different risk profiles, obviously. But if CBP clears the traceability issue and TOYO actually gets Texas to \~2 GW, the story starts shifting from "temporary Ethiopia trade advantage" to "profitable manufacturer moving onshore." They're hosting an Investor Day at the Houston plant on Oct. 6, so that claim gets tested in public within a month. That's the part I think the market may be underestimating.