=== SUMMARY ===
- Post analyzes 17,859 congressional stock transactions from 2020-2025 to test whether copying congressional trades beats the market.
- Author thesis: Congressional purchases underperform the S&P 500 (10.95% vs 19.73% one-year returns) and show no reliable edge over sales.
- Quality: Well-researched quantitative DD with clear methodology, though limited to a single historical window and basket-level analysis.
=== SENTIMENT ===
NEUTRAL
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
SPY - LONG | confidence: 0.55 | sentiment: +0.30
Speaker: u/DanielAPO
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: Congressional purchases returned 10.95% vs 19.73% for the S&P 500 over the same one-year windows.
2. THE BRIDGE: Passive S&P 500 indexing is a superior alternative to copying congressional stock disclosures.
3. THE VERDICT: Long SPY benefits from the market's outperformance over politically-informed stock picking.
4. RISKS: Historical sample only; congressional trades may have non-financial motives; disclosure timing may change.
Timeframe: medium-term
Key Points:
- Copying Congress underperformed S&P by ~8.8%
- No reliable edge in congressional purchase vs sales
- Passive indexing beat political stock trading
- Data covers 2020-2025, 17,859 disclosures
- Avoid building portfolios from congressional filings
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▶ Полный текст поста
Last week I shared my study of 47,458 corporate-insider purchases. One of the main questions in the comments was whether members of Congress perform better, so I ran the numbers.
I analyzed 17,859 congressional purchase and sale events disclosed between January 2020 and August 2025, entering only after each disclosure became public.
Short answer: copying Congress did not beat the S&P 500.
The typical congressional purchase returned 10.95% after one year, while the S&P 500 returned 19.73% over the same windows. Sales performed similarly, and purchases did not reliably beat sales.
Congressional purchases did underperform by less than the corporate-insider purchases in my previous study. I also found some evidence that purchases were better timed than later placebo windows on the same stocks, but they still trailed the market.
I tested disclosure delays, transaction-date returns, committee-aligned purchases and two placebo windows in the full study.
Congressional purchases returned 10.95% vs 19.73% for the S&P 500 over the same one-year windows. Passive S&P 500 indexing is a superior alternative to copying congressional stock disclosures. Long SPY benefits from the market's outperformance over politically-informed stock picking. Historical sample only; congressional trades may have non-financial motives; disclosure timing may change.